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If you follow HHSR at all (first and foremost, thank you) you probably know how I feel about the Grammy Awards as it relates specifically to hip-hop.

The Recording Academy has always treated hip-hop as a second-class citizen. While this is never acceptable, it was definitely more understandable 15 or 20 years ago. Unfortunately, this trend has seemed to continue throughout the 2000s. HHSR wrote a piece breaking it all down last year, but here is a quick synopsis:

– Historically, the Grammys tend to favor white rappers (specifically Eminem) over all other rappers, regardless of the quality of work they put out.

– The more a rap artist/group strays away from what most would recognize as “traditional hip-hop”, the more likely they are to receive recognition from the Grammys.

– A rap record will be given some recognition, but it will never be recognized to the point that it will receive the Grammy for Album of the Year, unless it strays away significantly from traditional rap influences.

– The Grammys have screwed up the Best Rap Album award on several occasions.

Sidebar: And don’t let the fact that LL Cool J is hosting again seduce you into overlooking any of these facts.

Of course, just because a rap album wins the award within the genre, doesn’t necessarily mean it deserves the “Album of the Year” distinction. But it is hard to believe that year after year, artists like Eminem and Kanye West are up for the Academy’s highest honor, only to consistently come up short.

This year is a bit different though. Jay Z has received nine nominations, and two hip-hop albums are up for Album of the Year— Kendrick Lamar’s Good Kid, m.A.A.d. City and Macklemore and Ryan Lewis’ The Heist (seven nominations apiece).

With all of that in mind, here are a few thoughts from HHSR before tonight’s 2014 Grammy Awards.

As stated on the HHSR podcast, it’s difficult to say who will win Best Rap Performance, as I’m not quite sure how it’s defined. But the nominees are:

“Started From The Bottom”- Drake

“Berzerk”- Eminem

“Tom Ford”- Jay Z

“Swimming Pools (Drank)”- Kendrick Lamar

“Thrift Shop”- Macklemore & Ryan Lewis

Normally, Eminem would run away with this category. But there’s a new white emcee in town, and this is his night. While Kendrick Lamar should take home this award, the prediction here is Macklemore & Ryan Lewis will walk away with the hardware.

Sidebar: Interestingly, the Fire Marshall is nominated in this category I assume because “Berzerk” dropped inside of the Grammy’s recognized window. However his MMLP2 album came out in November, thus missing the October cutoff and leaving him ineligible for the 2014 awards.

For Best/Rap Sung Collaboration, the nominees are:

“Power Trip”- J. Cole Featuring Miguel

“Part II (On The Run)”- Jay Z Featuring Beyoncé

“Holy Grail”- Jay Z Featuring Justin Timberlake

“Now Or Never”- Kendrick Lamar Featuring Mary J. Blige

“Remember You”- Wiz Khalifa Featuring The Weeknd

Any of the first three would be an acceptable winner, but I’d expect “Holy Grail” to be victorious, with Timberlake’s cachet being a major reason why.

Best Rap Song Nominees:

“Holy Grail”- Jay Z Featuring Justin Timberlake

“Fuckin’ Problems”- A$AP Rocky Featuring Drake, 2 Chainz & Kendrick Lamar

“New Slaves”- Kanye West

“Thrift Shop”- Macklemore & Ryan Lewis

“Started From The Bottom”- Drake

Under the hypothetical scenario that Macklemore & Ryan Lewis have already won for Best Rap Performance, it would be hard to justify giving this award to anyone else, right? Of this group (which most would probably agree were not the five best rap songs of the year), “Holy Grail” should win, but I doubt that it does. Macklemore wins again.

Nobody had a bigger year in rap than Kendrick Lamar. He deserves some hardware.

Best Rap Album:

The Heist– Macklemore & Ryan Lewis

Nothing Was The Same– Drake

Good Kid, m.A.A.d. City– Kendrick Lamar

Yeezus– Kanye West

Magna Carta…Holy Grail– Jay Z

Once again, given the fact that K Dot and Macklemore already received noms for “Album of the Year”, there’s basically no way this award could be given to Yeezy, Hov or Drizzy.

Sorry fellas.

Sticking with the principles mentioned at the top of this article, I predict The Heist to beat out Kendrick, thus extending the Grammy’s Cal Ripken-like streak of screwing up this specific category.

As for the other categories not centered around hip-hop, but still containing hip-hop acts in their nominations (Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, Best New Artist etc.), it’s difficult to say whether or not rappers deserve any shine here because I personally don’t know enough about the other artists to pontificate on it. But to be brutally honest, if you’re rooting for Kendrick to win Best New Artist or Album of the Year, don’t hold your breath. The same can pretty much be said for Macklemore’s “Same Love” for Song of the Year and The Heist for Album of the Year.

It’s hard to know whether or not The Grammys are inherently racist— maybe that was true at one time, but that’s a heavy accusation to level against anyone. At the very least though, it appears the individuals voting on rap music within The Recording Academy have consistently demonstrated they have no pulse on the streets or the thoughts of the opinion-leaders that actually drive the culture. Macklemore’s social commentary (minus the self-righteousness of a Kanye, for instance) is refreshing for the rap game and the Academy will likely eat this up. But his work was simply not the best the genre had to offer last year, specifically from a lyrical standpoint. Regardless, expect him to clean up tonight, that is, until the major awards are handed out.

Hopefully, HHSR will be proven wrong tonight. Or, maybe history will prevail once again.