Fantasy football pisses me off so much.
I limit myself two leagues every year; any more and my time would be divided far too much for any responsible adult who actually tries at fantasy. But there is nothing more frustrating than putting the best team together over the course of an entire season only to watch all your hard work go up in smoke because somebody snatched up Tim Hightower off waivers last week, and he dominated in Week 16 (this happened to me last month). There’s a certain justice that easily gets swept away in the chaos of the fantasy world, which is fine for some, but not me. Generally, I prefer to see the teams that have demonstrated to be the best over a course of time be rewarded for their efforts.
Watching the playoffs in any sport go “chalk” (all of the favorites advance) can be boring, unless you value justice. There’s something appealing though about seeing the very best compete for the highest prize. No questions are left unanswered— the sports universe is completely in balance. Sure, the playoff bracket format isn’t flawless, but the single-elimination tournament is the agreed upon method for crowning a champion in almost all our major sports. Even stubborn old college football made the switch in the name of justice (and money).
After 19 weeks, the football gods have righteously given us the top two seeds in each conference championship game, proving once again the NFL is the most predictable sport known to man.
In all serious, these four teams have been at or near the top in the standings all year, so it’s fair to say they each deserve to be here. No starting slow and coming on strong, no fattening up their record against mediocre competition, no “teams you don’t want to play” come playoff time. Simply the best two teams in each conference (well, sort of).
We talked quarterbacks last week and went 4-0. Of course we could talk QBs again until we’re blue in the face this week, but everyone else will do that for us.
Sidebar: Plus, by now my thoughts on why Brady is better, and why Manning’s lackluster playoff record is indefensible are well known.
It’s important to remember this week that no team made it this far by quarterback alone. In fact, the heart and soul of each of these teams lie elsewhere, and each veteran played a pivotal role in their team’s Divisional Round victory last weekend.
AFC Championship: New England Patriots (2) at Denver Broncos (1)
Patriots: Julian Edelman
This was supposed to be Jerod Mayo, the inside linebacker and defensive leader of the Pats who finished each of the last two seasons on injured reserve. Unfortunately, the former First Team All-Pro again suffered another season-ending injury last week against the Chiefs.
Sidebar: We also could’ve easily gone with Tom Brady here, but that’s too easy.
Julian Edelman embodies everything New England Patriots— he might as well be the bearded version of the silver-faced guy on the side of the helmet. At this point we all know the story of Edelman, the former Kent State quarterback drafted in the seventh round and molded by Brady and Belichick into a Pro Bowl caliber receiver. But in addition to becoming a 100 catch per season type wideout affectionately known by some as “Slottie Pippen”, Edelman is also the most prolific punt returner in the franchise’s history, and (in case you forgot) will even play some defensive back in a pinch. Today, if not a better receiver, he’s certainty a better overall football player than his former tutor Wes Welker. And in his first week back from injury: 10 catches for 100 yards last Saturday in a win over Kansas City.
He’s the little brother Brady never had, and the gym rat Belichick always covets. Edelman has great hands, is a terrific blocker, and is tough as nails. That toughness was on display last week when he returned from a not totally healed broken foot, last year when he played through a broken finger, and when he held onto the ball and kept running after Kam Chancellor splattered him in the Super Bowl. That play jump-started the Patriots comeback, a comeback that ended with Jules hauling in the game winning touchdown.
That comeback was also littered with mini pep talks from “Mini-Tron”. A few years ago, Edelman flirted with the 49ers in free agency, but anyone who knows his makeup knew that there was no way he would leave New England.
Edelman is all Patriot. He speaks for Brady when he can’t speak for himself, as his quarterback’s greatness has elevated him to a level above pot stirring. He’s a champion that plays with the hunger of a seventh round pick, and that’s “The Patriot Way”.
Broncos: DeMarcus Ware
He’s the polar opposite of the do-everything Edelman. He plays defense, he’s huge, he’s black and he’s basically great at one thing. But again…he’s great at it. Only Julius Peppers and Jared Allen have more sacks than DeMarcus Ware among active players (he trails both by 1.5 sacks).
In his 11-year career, Ware has only played in six playoff games. Though he’s arguably the best pass rusher of his generation, he’s never played in a Super Bowl, and has never even played in a conference championship game. Sunday, the 33-year-old, who is battling through a knee injury, will get his first crack at making it to the show.
If the offense wants to “win one for Peyton” (like the Broncos won one for John Elway in the late ’90s), then the defense absolutely wants to win one for DeMarcus Ware. He’s a lot like Peyton actually. He’s spent almost his entire future Hall of Fame career with another franchise, yet never had the playoff success to match the gaudy statistics. But within the last few years was brought in by Elway to help Denver get over the hump. Like Manning, Ware missed time this year and clearly isn’t the player he once was. And like Manning, he managed to make a play that helped swing last Sunday’s game in the Broncos’ favor. Ware recovered a Pittsburgh fumble, which Manning would eventually turn into the game-winning touchdown.
If Ware and Co. can pressure Brady, unlike Kansas City, his team will have a shot at knocking off New England.
AFC Champion: New England Patriots
I had this before the season. With only two teams still breathing, there’s no reason to deviate now.
The Patriots are the vastly superior team. Frankly, only an unforeseen occurrence should prevent them from advancing to their seventh Super Bowl in the Brady/Belichick era. Unforeseen occurrences can be classified as: a catastrophic injury to one of New England’s key players (Brady or Gronkowski, or possibly Edelman), a Montreal Screw Job level shafting by the officials at the hands of Goodell to get back a the Patriots for failing to bar Brady for Deflate Gate (we really shouldn’t rule this out…this is close to what we saw when the Broncos defeated the Patriots in Denver on November 29, and the league already “got its shooters in the Uber”), or something similar to the plot from Black Sunday.
Denver’s defense is very good, but slipped a bit in the second half of the season. And unlike their last meeting, the Pats will have Edelman in the lineup, and their quick passing attack will offset the lack of running game, and should neutralize the Broncos pass rush. Kansas City couldn’t get an ounce of pressure on Brady and we see how that turned out. This game won’t be much different. This is why New England pissed away Week 17— they always believed they could win in Denver.
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick make their SEVENTH Super Bowl, and exercises a few demons in the process.
NFC Championship: Arizona Cardinals (2) at Carolina Panthers (1)
Cardinals: Larry Fitzgerald
Unquestionably the nicest guy in the NFL (or so it seems), Larry Fitzgerald had his opportunities to leave the desert to pursue greener pastures, more specifically, consistent quarterback play. But he’s showed his loyalty time and again, and now he’s reaping the rewards.
Fitz was electrifying in last week’s game against the Packers. He almost single-handedly wrestled the game away from Green Bay, even in spite of his quarterback’s performance.
Sidebar: Fitzgerald ended the game in OT without the Packers ever getting a shot, which drew the ire of the Packers Clay Matthews. Guess what? If your defense gets a stop, or even forces a turnover and scores, you win. Don’t bitch about the overtime rule just because you lost. You let Fitz win the game. People say they want to see Rodgers touch the ball in overtime— Rodgers had 60 minutes to touch the ball and still needed two Hail Mary’s on the same drive just to score to 20 points. So no, don’t change the rule. It’s fine.
We should be used to this by now. Fitzgerald has a long history of saving his very best for the postseason, and Panther fans are just now getting over the PTSD they suffered when Fitz (8 catches, 166 yards & 1 TD) and Kurt Warner went into Charlotte and came out with a W in January of 2009.
That night Arizona defied the odds, traveled from west to east and beat the Panthers in a night playoff game in Carolina. If they can pull that off again, they’re Super Bowl bound. Given the way Fitzgerald has performed in the playoffs, there’s a decent chance that could happen unless Josh Norman can take him out of the game.
Panthers: Thomas Davis
Like Fitzgerald, he’s 32 years old, he’s played his entire career with one team and he has great hands. Well, you wouldn’t normally associate that last quality with an outside linebacker, but Thomas Davis is so trusted by his coaching staff that he actually appears on the Panthers hands team. And as fate would have it, the heart and soul of the now 16-1 Carolina Panthers actually recovered the onside kick to seal a victory over the Seahawks last week.
Besides being a terrific player in the midst of a career year, Davis is best known for recovering from three (yes, THREE) ACL tears in three consecutive years! Battling back from that level of misfortune, mixed with restructuring his contract to save the team dough in 2012, and helping mold Luke Kuechly into one of the best players in football and…yeah. Thomas Davis is Mr. Panther.
NFC Champion: Arizona Cardinals
I don’t feel half as good about this prediction as I do about the AFC; this game is basically a toss up. Carolina having home field, slightly more recent playoff experience, an MVP QB who didn’t look shaky last week, and familiarity with playing on that ugly field at Bank of America Stadium in crappy weather makes it easy to like “Keep Pounding” Panthers.
Carolina has also risen to the occasion at every turn this year. They went to Seattle and won, faced the reigning MVP and won, had the spotlight on Thanksgiving and won, went to the giant killing New York Giants’ house and won, and faced the two-time reigning NFC champ/”the team nobody wanted to play” and won. So why pick the Cardinals?
Arizona’s wins over the Packers, Seahawks, Bengals and Vikings are slightly more impressive than Carolina’s over the Packers, Seahawks, Redskins and Texans. And Charles Tillman and Jared Allen are banged up (Tillman is out, which hurts Carolina’s ability to stop the Cards’ potent passing attack). But beyond that, the Cardinals feel like the more desperate team. Their 36-year-old QB has never been this far, and he doesn’t have the time in front of him Cam Newton has. If anything, Palmer’s game last week only served as a stern reminder of his playoff mortality. Though they’ve met every challenge, the Panthers have been sailing along all year without a whiff of adversity ever since Kelvin Benjamin’s preseason injury.
Last week I compared them to the ’09 Cavs. If that analogy is perfect, this is the end of the line for Carolina. Admittedly, this is largely a gut feeling, and either team would help create an amazing Super Bowl 50 (as long as New England advances).
Is there room for gut feelings in matters of justice? Perhaps not, but then there’d be little reason for us to wax poetic on the NFL playoffs.