Is it weird that I want to demand a refund for the first round of the NBA Playoffs, despite not paying for anything? What number do I call to reach the NBA and how many times do I have to press zero before I get a hold of Adam Silver?
That’s how wack round one was. Everyone lost track of the number of blowouts we saw, and injuries to superstars like Stephen Curry, and far more importantly Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, not only lowered the quality of the product, but drastically altered the playoff landscape.
We can only hope round two is significantly better, although the timing in which many round one series ended caused a staggering of the start of round two, which resulted in this piece being written after the start of a couple of second round series. And judging by what we’ve seen so far, round two looks like more of the same. But we’re making picks anyway!
Sidebar: Yours truly and Anthony Hueston correctly predicted 7 of 8 first round series, which would’ve been a cool 8 for 8s if not for the Paul/Griffin injuries. In the interest of full disclosure, I had the games right in only 2 of 8 series. Should’ve been 4 of 8, but again, Paul & Griffin. And Steph.
Eastern Conference
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (4) Atlanta Hawks
These two teams have history.
From Matthew Dellavedova accidentally taking out Kyle Korver last year (and earning the nickname “Dellave-diver” from my man CL Palmer) to Al Horford getting ejected from a game for dropping a little “southern hospitality” on Dellave-diver’s dome (see what I did there?), to Horford’s sister still trashing Delly to this day…yeah, there’s definitely history.
The history and hostility stems from the Cavs broom & dustpanning the Hawks out of the playoffs in 2015. They actually did the same thing back in 2009. But when comparing last year’s Eastern Conference Finals to this year’s matchup, two key points tend to stand out: the Cavaliers should be better, and the Hawks appear to be worse.
ATL won 60 games last year, yet barely made the conference finals. Meanwhile, the Cavs were without Kevin Love for all four games, and without Kyrie Irving for two of the four contests, and Cleveland still managed to complete the sweep job. To make matters worse for the Hawks, the Cavs swept Atlanta during the regular season, and LeBron “Space Jam” James has just owned this team for years.
Sidebar: I’m still not sure that ’09 LeBron wasn’t the best basketball player I’ve ever seen. And I remember Jordan winning all six of his titles.
Paul Millsap was dynamic against the Celtics, while Jeff Teague was solid and outplayed Boston’s Isaiah Thomas for most of that series. But the talent gap that ultimately caught up with the Celtics; the same thing will catch up with the Hawks in round two. Millsap will likely be neutralized by Love, while a combination of Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov will likely slow down Al Horford at least a little bit.
Sidebar: I’m calling these two guys “Horsap” from now on.
On the flip side, the Hawks (now sans DeMarre Carroll) have nobody to really throw at LeBron. Kent Bazemore, Kyle Korver, Thabo Sefolosha and Mike Scott won’t cut it. The Cavs had over a week off and may need a few quarters or a full game to find their rhythm again, but if they didn’t sure up a few defensive holes during their hiatus, they’ll lose one of these games to Atlanta that they should’ve lost to Detroit.
Having said that, at the risk of deviating from history…nah, I won’t.
Cavs in four.
Kenneth’s pick: Cavs in five
Anthony’s pick: Cavs in five
(2) Toronto Raptors vs (3) Miami Heat
Of the eight teams that advanced to the second round, these two were by far the most inconsistent in round one.
It took the Heat seven games to dispatch a Hornets team that they were clearly better than (I think…right?), with Miami only advancing following a herculean effort from Dwyane Wade down the stretch in Game 6. Toronto seriously did everything within their power to piss away another Game 7 on their home floor. As Charles Barkley put it, the Raptors “went into their prevent defense” and nearly gave back a 15 point lead to the Pacers, only Indiana came up just a few plays (and a questionable call or two) short.
So here are two teams that won Game 7s on the home courts, but both teams probably should’ve lost in the previous round. The most critical piece of information we learned from these two teams is that Wade and the Heat can still turn it on when the chips are down, and that the Raptors really do have a mental block when it comes to performing on this stage.
Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan melting into a puddle of their own playoff fears is apparently a real thing. Even in the Game 7 victory over Indiana, Toronto’s backcourt combined to shoot a frigid 15-46 (.326)! For the series, Lowry shot .316, while DeRozan shot .337. Toronto’s two best players were beyond abysmal, and though they managed to win the series, how are they going to flip this thing around enough to take down a team as experienced as Miami? Considering that, and the fact that Toronto has no distinct matchup advantages, and the Heat are going back to the conference finals, with or without Chris Bosh.
Heat in 6.
Kenneth’s pick: Raptors in 7
Anthony’s pick: Heat in 6
Western Conference
(1) Golden State Warriors vs (5) Portland Trail Blazers
The per-series predictions can be found on our Twitter feed, but judging from the Game 1 performance, we may be looking at a series that’s even quicker than the gentleman’s sweep we each called for.
Portland was gifted a round one series victory by the basketball gods who hates the L.A. Clippers like Kanye hates the fashion industry. The extra playoff reps that this team is getting will be worth their weight in gold down the road, especially for Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. However Portland’s dynamic backcourt looked anything but in the games where Chris Paul was on the floor in round one.
And remember when we said CP3 owned Dame Lillard? Lillard saw his scoring average drop by 3.1 ppg in the series, with highly unimpressive .374/.347/.879 shooting splits (field goal/three-point/free throw percentages) over the six-game contest. McCollum just about settled at his regular season scoring average of 20 a night, but his .433/.367/.821 splits weren’t much better. The Blazers also struggled mightily with the Clippers trapping their pick & rolls early in the series, and now must deal with pick & roll defensive dynamo Draymond Green and rim protector Andrew Bogut on the back line.
If Portland’s shot selection doesn’t improve, it will lead to a ton of run-outs that will see the Blazers run off the floor with the quickness, regardless if Stephen Curry suits up.
Speaking of Curry, the earliest he will return from his sprained knee suffered in the Rockets series will be Game 3 in Rip City. Last time, the case was made for Curry being the NBA’s Most Improved Player (won by McCollum). This was done with the presumption that #30 will win his second consecutive league MVP award as soon as tomorrow. But here’s the case that the MVP should go to someone other than Chef Curry:
• Elite Teammate #1
His running mate Klay Thompson is by all accounts the second best shooter in the league, next to Curry himself. Since an elite shooter/scorer inherently draws the defense away from the other four players on the court, many of Curry’s record-setting 402 three-pointers were wide open looks created by Thompson. Meanwhile, players like James Harden (runner-up to Curry in MVP voting in 2015) are playing opposite Patrick Beverley. Major difference.
• Elite Teammate #2
His other do-everything teammate Draymond Green recorded 13 triple-doubles this season. Green is so indispensable, some have suggest Green himself was a legit MVP candidate mid-season. While such talk has since subsided, Green will still likely garner All-NBA first team votes, with Klay likely landing a second-team spot. So who besides Curry is playing with TWO other players of this caliber? Before you blurt out “LEBRON!”, remember that neither Kyrie Irving nor Kevin Love even made the All-Star team this year.
• The Result of Having Elite Teammates
Although he hasn’t missed much time, the Warriors seem to not miss a beat without Steph. Curry made a single three-pointer in Game 4, but the Warriors still managed to set the NBA record for most three’s made in a playoff game. Granted, this was a postseason game, but it’s still evidence that the this Warriors team can play great without him, as they did three times during the regular season. Maybe Dru Joyce II was onto something when he called Curry a “system player”…maybe.
• Coach of the Year
Steve Kerr won it this year, and Luke Walton, who coached Golden State for half the season, just cashed in on his work as a substitute teacher and was named the next head coach of the Lakers.
• Curry’s Lack of Defense
So he led the league in steals— big deal. Steals can be a misnomer when gauging a defender’s true impact. All you need to know is when Curry hit that amazing three in Oklahoma City with 0.6 seconds left, he spent the final half second ON THE BENCH! What does it say about Curry’s defense that the Coach of the Year didn’t trust him to be on the floor to preserve the lead for literally half a second?? Would Kawhi, LeBron or CP3 be on the bench in that situation?
So with all that, are we sure Curry is the most valuable player? It’s worth thinking about.
Warriors in five.
Kenneth’s pick: Warriors in five
Anthony’s pick: Warriors in five
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs (3) Oklahoma City Thunder
Former ESPN writer Bill Simmons first drew a corollary between Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant’s relationship to that of Avon Barksdale and Stringer Bell from The Wire back in 2011. He would repeat this exercise every so often when things appeared to be getting rocky between the two from the outside. Five years later, the duo appears to be thick as thieves. Westbrook is now averaging 10.4 assists per game, good for second in the NBA (who would’ve predicted that back in 2011?) many of them going to KD, while Durant is deflecting criticism towards Russ on his behalf, even going so far as to call Mark Cuban “an idiot” during the Dallas series after Cuban suggested OKC only had one superstar.
But now this tag team is at a serious crossroads. At 27, Kevin Durant is a free agent after this season; Westbrook, 26, is a free agent after next season. They’ve been together since 2008, and despite being two of the five best players in the league for the last several years, are 0-7 in their pursuit of a championship. Going 0-8 could force Durant to put an end to their run together. Right now, Russ & KD are less Avon & String, and more Shawn Michaels & Marty Jannetty. The Rockers were the most exciting tag team in the WWF in the late 80’s and early 90’s. They captivated fans, yet somehow they never won the tag team championship… and then came the barbershop scene.
If Durant walks away from Russ this summer, it won’t be half as callous as Michaels’ departure. They truly do seem to be great friends. But we need to acknowledge that a second round L to the Spurs could force Durant to make a decision he doesn’t want to make in pursuit of legacy preservation. The most likely scenario is KD re-ups for one year, and they hit free agency next summer together. But according to The Vertical’s Adrian Wojnarowski, this really could be it.
Although…Westbrook and Durant, especially Durant, have become more defiant in dealings with the media. It’s like when Kobe hit the point in his career where he decided to drop the goodie-two-shoe act and started cussing in front of the media— KD seems to have reached that point (even if it’s hard to understand why in his case). Therefore, a loss here might not mean the end. Remember, it was Durant who, in the wake of “The Decision”, signed his first extension with the Thunder without ostentation. It’s easy to envision a scenario where Durant re-ups long term in OKC not because it’s the best basketball decision for him, but it would allow him stick it to media folks who prayed on his departure by saying…“See, y’all media people don’t know shit!”
Unfortunately for Oklahoma City, we’ll see how this summer unfolds sooner rather than later. This series also began before the first round concluded (our picks were again made via Twitter), but if Game 1 was any indication, the Thunder appear to be just that: a lot of noise without any real purpose.
The Spurs are the superior team. While Serge Ibaka still appears to be lost in the offense since Enes Kanter arrived, LaMarcus Aldridge is hitting his stride. The Spurs can also throw Kawhi Leonard at Durant, which means Westbrook must be efficient in his dominance for OKC to have any chance. And while Russell Westbrook is many wonderful things, efficient was never one of them. San Antonio will do everything to make him into a perimeter jump shooter; if Westbrook can’t get to the rack repeatedly, OKC has no chance.
It’s difficult to see the Thunder, who’ve probably been a little overrated all year, winning this series. This team has been consistently undisciplined, blowing more fourth quarter leads than anyone. Discipline is one thing at which the Spurs excel. Many pundits had the Thunder going back to the Finals preseason, but this team just doesn’t have it.
So the real question is: will we see more fireworks in this series, or in the Thunder’s offseason?
Spurs in six.
Kenneth’s pick: Spurs in seven
Anthony’s pick: Spurs in seven