In what is shaping up to be arguably the most compelling division in the league, the Southwest Division has five, yes, five teams that you could make an argument for making the playoffs and three teams that could legitimately come out the West. So who does HHSR have winning the division, and the conference, and the championship???
Memphis Grizzlies
What’s Hot: The Grizzlies bring back the most feared frontcourt in the game in the form of emotional leader Zach Randolph and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol. One of the best defensive teams in the league last year, Memphis hangs their hat on their trademark toughness, which allows them to grind out victories in a very efficient, albeit unentertaining fashion.
Memphis kept the majority of their core intact, while making two low key shrewd free agent acquisitions in center Kosta Koufos and shooter extraordinaire Mike Miller.
Oh, and the hold the proud distinction of having one-upped HHSR last year.
What’s Not Hot: While the Grizzles formula has proven to be successful, it still isn’t championship level successful, which ultimately is the goal for a team that made the NBA’s final four last season. Even with the new additions, Memphis still does not have enough scoring punch to get over the hump. They also let head coach Lionel Hollins walk instead of giving him the extension he deserved, and replaced him with some dude named Dave Joerger. Again, a pretty big gamble for a team that was four wins from the Finals just six months ago.
Sidebar: Really Memphis? No extension for Hollins, even after all those albums Timberlake moved this year? And all those damn Papa John’s commercials Peyton Manning did, there was NO extra dough laying around?
What The Future Holds: Grizzlies majority owner Robert Pera recently challenged Michael Jordan to a game of 1-on-1. MICHAEL!!! JORDAN!!! It doesn’t matter that he’s 50, he’s still MJ. Couldn’t decide if this should be considered “hot” or “not hot”, so it lands in this section. But for the year, the Grizzlies should be able to ride their defense, rebounding and experience to another playoff spot. And just like last year, the skepticism of this team remains.
“We don’t believe you, you need more people!”
New Orleans Pelicans
What’s Hot: Many believe Anthony Davis’ breakout season is already upon us. After finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting last year, Davis now has some running buddies with him that should free his game up a bit. NOLA traded for all-star Jrue Holiday, added swingman Tyreke Evans through a sign-and-trade and now has Eric Gordon back in the fold…you know, until he injures himself blowing his nose in a $100 bill.
What’s Not Hot: The Pellies don’t have much depth. Beyond their starting lineup lies is a group not high on talent, unless Austin Rivers shakes the moniker of “The Worst Rookie of All-Time”, which he earned in some circles in 2012-13. It’s hard to even decide on which article to link here, so just look at these search engine results. The number of related articles on the subject of Austin Rivers being a God awful basketball player is staggering!
While pairing a talented young point guard with Davis was a good look, bringing in Evans for four years and $44M is a pretty hefty price tag for a guy who after four professional seasons still doesn’t have a defined position, has seen his points and assists per game totals decline every year and hasn’t played in more than 65 games since 2010.
What The Future Holds: Expect Monty Williams crew to be much more competitive this season. However in a tough conference and an extremely tough division, the Hor…. Pelicans will be on the outside looking in come April.
Dallas Mavericks
What’s Hot: Dallas may not have landed the big free agent that Mark Cuban was gunning for since they won the 2011 NBA title, but Monta Ellis actually isn’t a bad piece for this team. Assuming Dirk is back to his old self — and everybody has completely forgotten how good Dirk really is…when he wants to be — he may finally have the legitimate #2 scoring option on his team that he hasn’t had in years, including his championship season. Dallas also has Rick Carlisle on the sideline, one of the elite coaches in this league. Monta should have the ability to freelance quite a bit, if not do whatever the hell he wants, in Carlisle’s offense.
What’s Not Hot: The Mavs are a vet heavy team, without much depth. Injuries could easily capsize their entire season at a moments notice. And even if they manage to stay relatively healthy, how much can you really expect out of Vince Carter, Elton Brand, Shawn Marion, Sam Dalembert, Jose Calderon and a 35-year-old Dirk? The fact that Mark Cuban willingly broke up a championship team in an effort to go free agent fishing is a decision he may never live down.
What The Future Holds: Dirk’s not done. Not yet. He’s fallen off considerably since winning it all two years ago, but he’s got one final run left in him as “The Man” before he really hangs em up— that run should begin this year. The Mavericks won’t win the title, but the potency of Dirk and Monta should get Dallas back into the bottom half of the Western Conference playoffs. However, if things go south in a hurry, would Dallas consider trading the 11X all-star to a contender? He’s the best player in franchise history by light-years, yet he’s in the final year of his contract and may want a last shot at another championship.
Houston Rockets
What’s Hot: GM Daryl Morey spent years “acquiring assets” in the hopes of landing a duo (or trio) of all-star players. Things were looking grim up until last summer when he swindled the Thunder into dealing them James Harden for (what appears to be) nothing. Then there was no shame in his thirst this past July when he courted Dwight Howard harder than Pac did “Left Eye” on “Can U Get Away?” Just listen to these lyrics and act like you can’t hear Morey spittin this game at D12, with Jimmy Buss (or Kobe, whichever you prefer) playing the abusive boyfriend role.
Well, Morey got his man. And besides cuckolding the rival Lakers, the Rockets may have tipped the balance of power in the West. Acquiring Howard opens things up for Harden (as if he needed it) and the rest of Houston’s shooters and gives them an official twin-tower tandem the likes of which hasn’t been seen in H-Town since Sampson and Olajuwon.
A bonus to the Howard deal is the spotlight is now completely off Jeremy Lin, and the very talented Chandler Parsons should be in line for all the open corner three’s he can handle. Parsons may be a Most Improved Player candidate with Howard in the picture.
What’s Not Hot: As difficult as it will be to score or grab a rebound against Houston, this duo will only succeed if the other half, Omer Asik, is on board. His initial reaction didn’t appear to be in support of the Howard signing to say the least (I pleaded with the Clippers to make a deal for the disgruntled Turk; this would’ve solved their frontcourt issues).
Houston has the hard part down— landing two superstars. Still, the Rockets are an unfinished product. They could use some more shooting and a lockdown perimeter defender. Meanwhile Harden is the unquestioned #1 option on this team, particularly in crunch time. As the stakes are raised, The Beard can not shrink from the spotlight like he did in the 2012 NBA Finals.
And if the spotlight isn’t what Harden, and Howard especially, covets, than this could be a very long season for a team who is now burdened with expectations higher than Curren$y.
What The Future Holds: If Chandler Parsons really steps up, Houston could be on the brink of having three all-stars. This is clearly a playoff team that if they catch a few breaks, could go as far as the conference finals. But if the rest of the league ever figures out Harden’s slow-mo Euro-step, the Rockets are finished.
Sidebar: Just looking at his style and approach to the game, James Harden is the new generation’s Paul Pierce. Consistent scorer with all-around/herky-jerky game, with an unguardable step back jumper. It looks so slow on TV, but he always gets his shot off.
San Antonio Spurs
What’s Hot: Ahh, the Spurs. My cousin once told me that when the NBA playoffs start, he always picks the Spurs to come out the West, just because they’re the Spurs (he does the same the with the Patriots in the NFL playoffs). The ultimate pillar of consistency, the Spurs were running like a well oiled machine last year in the playoffs and based on the way they took apart the Heat a couple of those Finals games, led you to believe they definitely could’ve won that series if it were played over again.
The absolute best coach, one of the best centers in NBA history and a point guard that’s currently one of the top 10 players in the game. Shooting, defense, savvy the Spurs still have everything you’d want in a team after all these years.
Sidebar: DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE! TIM DUNCAN IS A CENTER!!! ALWAYS HAS BEEN! ALWAYS WILL BE!!!
What’s Not Hot: The same thing that has not been hot about the Spurs for many years, age and attrition. But Popovich will never allow this team to run itself into the ground during the regular season. If they get lucky with injuries, the Spurs will still reel off their usual 55+ wins and a top three playoff seed.
Wait, this was the “Not Hot” section, right?
What The Future Holds: San Antonio is all about the playoffs. The growth of Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, combined with the addition of Marco Belinelli allows the Spurs to stretch defenses and harass offenses on the perimeter (don’t be shocked if they make a key midseason pickup as well). The Spurs are great. We know this. In fact, HHSR has them defeating the Clippers in the conference finals and coming out the West yet again.
Western Conference Playoff teams (in no particular order): Houston Rockets, L.A. Clippers, Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trail Blazers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs.
The Rockets, Clippers, Thunder, Grizzlies and Warriors are the other teams that have a realistic shot at making the final round as of now. However none of these other teams as presently constructed have the combination of youth, shooting, athleticism, experience, defense, toughness, size, coaching and the star players that can carry you through crunch time like the San Antonio Spurs, which is why HHSR has them defeating the Chicago Bulls in the NBA Finals, thus claiming their fifth championship since 1999.
Frankly, they should’ve won the NBA Championship last year. But the window is closing and the time is now. Tim Duncan will put the Spurs on his back one final time (like he did in Game 6 of the Finals versus Miami), only this time the ball won’t inexplicably roll off the rim. And then he’ll call it a career, thus bringing to a close the career of one of the greatest centers in NBA history.
Or, maybe something else happens. Whatever works.
Click here for our Northwest Division preview and predictions.
Click here for our Pacific Division preview and predictions.