As mentioned on last week’s HHSR Podcast, these Divisional Round matchups were all toss-ups. And unless you saw a team give up a touchdown 13 seconds into the game, that’s exactly how it played out.
Whatever good luck we had on picks was spent up during Wildcard Weekend—we took it on the chin last week, but that won’t stop us from examining the Conference Championship Games. While we have familiar teams in the AFC Title Game, two familiar faces will be absent. Sunday will mark the first time in since January 2011 the AFC Championship Game didn’t include either Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes. Meanwhile, the NFC Title Game features two teams that will have played once a month in each of the last three months.
Last week:
1-3 straight up; 1-3 against the spread
2025-26 Playoffs:
6-4 straight up; 6-4 against the spread
All-Time Record:
Wildcard Weekend: 42-26 (.618)
Divisional Round: 39-17 (.696)
Conference Championships: 14-12 (.538)
Super Bowls: 7-6 (.528)
All-Time: 102-61 (.628)
#2 New England Patriots (-4.5) at #1 Denver Broncos
We were fairly dismissive of Bo Nix on the podcast, and why wouldn’t we be? Nix had proven himself to be in the Trevor Lawrence class of quarterback, and we saw what Lawrence did with the game on the line versus Buffalo the week prior. But Nix navigated the Bills highly-ranked pass D successfully and even led the game-winning drive. But an inexplicable broken ankle will sadly sideline him for the remainder of the season.
Enter Jarrett Stidham. Though we have seen backup quarterbacks rise to the occasion and win in January before, it does require a special kind of performance. Jeff Hostetler immediately comes to mind—he never once turned the ball over in five career playoff starts and led the Giants to a Super Bowl XXV victory. Nick Foles is another—in his three games at the helm for the Eagles in the 2017 postseason, Foles completed nearly 73% of his passes for 324 yards per game, six TDs and one interception. His passer rating was 115.7 over that three-game stretch, which sets the bar for clipboard handlers looking to pull off the unthinkable.
Stidham on the other hand has four career starts under his belt. His 62.5% completion percentage, 216 ypg, 6 TDs, 4 ints, 4 fumbles (1 lost), and average passer rating of 90.0 doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. But that doesn’t mean he can’t do enough to slip past New England. Getting Stidham into the Super Bowl and hoisting the shiny silver football in two weeks would be Sean Payton’s greatest accomplishment and will likely require a heavy dose of running the ball; short, timely completions; and few turnovers, if any.
To watch Drake Maye this postseason, you would think he’s dunking the footballs in Crisco before each snap. He’s putting the ball on the ground A LOT, and he’ll probably have do it again if Denver is going to have any chance. The trouble for Denver is their defense hasn’t been nearly as impressive as it was earlier in the year. The Broncos gave up 26 the the Packers, 34 to the Jags and 30 to the Bills, all at home, all since December 14. Meanwhile, the Patriots D is rounding into form, scoring five turnovers against Houston (and left about five more on the field) and allowing just three points to the Chargers Wildcard Weekend.
The Broncos have a chance because of their of offensive line (although it’s hard to imagine them running the ball on New England), their home crowd and maybe a little history (Denver’s 8-2 mark is best in AFC Championship Game history). Here’s the rub: If people thought it was fair to knock the Broncos’ chances to make the Super Bowl because Bo Nix was their quarterback, and if people want to knock the Patriots’ chances because Drake Maye is in his first road playoff game (third overall) and because he’s been turning it over a lot, then how can you put any faith in Stidham? It’s fair to say Buffalo — who turned it over FIVE times, had a questionable call or two go against them, and was on the road, yet still only lost by three in overtime — was the better team.
Denver covers, but prepare for the football universe to be pissed off again because…the Patriots are heading back to the Super Bowl.
#5 Los Angeles Rams at #1 Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
They’ve played twice already and the numbers are pretty staggering.
Even more staggering are the ridiculous Matt Stafford takes people are getting off right now.
Stafford is good. Very good even. You can argue he’s the best quarterback left. But he’s been beyond pedestrian in these playoffs—barely completing 52% of his passes, under 285 ypg, five sacks, two fumbles and an 80.6 passer rating. Stafford’s regular season quarterback rating (QBR) was 71.1; his playoff QBR has cratered to 39.8. He threw zero interceptions against the Bears, but about five balls that could’ve been picked off and about three that should’ve been picked off (not to mention he seemed pretty banged up). Nobody seems to be talking about any of this.
Having traveled back to LA from Chicago, the Rams now must jump on a plane for the third straight week and head to Seattle (a low key three hour flight) to try to win three straight road games en route to the Super Bowl, with a one day rest disadvantage. If that weren’t enough, Sean McVay was horrendous in the Divisional Round game against the Bears. At one point in the fourth quarter, his Rams were passing over running by a 3-1 clip in sub-10 degree temperatures right off of Lake Michigan at night. It nearly cost LA the game. Fortunately, he remembered Kyren Williams just in time to save his season, because Stafford wasn’t doing it. Yet they still almost blew the game to Chicago, and if we’re being honest, LA probably should’ve lost in overtime.
It’s not often when you see a team DOMINATE all three phases of a game, but that’s what the Seahawks did last week when they crushed the 49ers like a jellybean LL style. Fourth down stops, 6.1 yards per carry from their starting tailback, kick returns for TDs, JSN finding pay dirt, Darnold not wilting in the moment, perfect kicking game…everything was working. We can’t assume it’ll be that easy for Seattle again, but they appear to be ready to meet the moment.
Some may bank on the Rams having played arguably their best offensive and defensive games of the season against the Seahawks (different games), and their familiarity with the opponent. But short of Puka Nacua going nuclear in Seattle again, it’s hard to see the Rams playing their best overall game in Seattle against a team that might just be a buzz saw.
Seahawks win, cover, and advance for a Super Bowl XLIX rematch.