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You can usually spot it a mile away.

A guy has a few funny and or catchy records. He gets a little bubble in the streets, then in the clubs. Before you know it, his one low-budget mixtape record gets on the radio. Then he gets a beat from the hot producer of the moment and BOOM…you have a career…

For about six months.

2 Chainz story didn’t follow this exact script. In fact, HHSR wrote about his unlikely rise to fame last summer. But last summer seems like a lifetime ago for the man who was briefly the hottest thing going in rap. It has left HHSR wondering: Is this a bump in the road or has 2 Chianz now reached afterthought status?

Chainz’s second major solo project, B.O.A.T.S. II: Me Time dropped back on September 9th to relatively modest reviews. While this was of no real surprise, commercially, the album failed come anywhere close to the performance of his last album.

His 2012 major label solo debut, Based On A T.R.U. Story pushed 147,000 units in its first week, making it the #1 album in the country. It has since reached certified gold status— an extremely admirable mark in this point-click-steal day and age. However the sequel has been in stores for nearly a month now, and after moving just 63,000 copies in its first week (good for third on the charts), B.O.A.T.S. II, released just 13 months later, has sold only a total of 115,000 albums. For you English majors, that’s a 32,000 unit fall off despite two extra weeks.

Sidebar: One could argue that debuting at #3 and selling over 100,000 units in three weeks is still an incredible accomplishment in 2013. While this is true in a vacuum, you have to consider how hot this man was just last year.

The reason behind this drastic decline? Tity 2 Chainz doesn’t seem to believe Def Jam put forth its best effort in supporting the record, which is odd considering they entered into a bidding war to obtain his services in the first place.

The lack of commercial appeal of this album was not hard to predict based on the minimal impact the lead single “Feds Watching” (which I didn’t hate) seemed to have. Even with Skateboard P producing and performing on the track, it only managed to crack the top 66 on the Billboard Hot 100.

The moral of the story: If you’re an artist that hits a home run with your major label debut album, the lead single on your second album had better be the hottest thing you ever put on wax. It’s the safest way to avoid any type of sophomore slump. It also doesn’t hurt to have a few bangers on your new record. “No Lie”, “Birthday Song” and “I’m Different” were a tough act to follow, but the 64,000 question that plagues B.O.A.T.S. II is the same one that has stifled MCs for decades: Are the songs on the new project wack by comparison to the prior work, or are they just as dope, but it’s the formula that no longer captures the general public?

All is not lost for 2 Chainz. He performed at the MTV VMAs last month and he is still making cameos on other rapper’s projects, including Fabolous, and of course Drake on the semi-hit “All Me”. He is also making more of an imprint overseas, as evidenced by the Australian/New Zealand success of the Jason Derulo song “Talk Dirty“, on which he is featured.

Sidebar: Why do we even know about the Australian success, you ask? Go to the “Talk Dirty” wiki page. The authors go out of their way to highlight the song’s international triumphs, yet never once mentions its domestic success (or apparent lack thereof). Those guys over at Warner Bros. know what they’re doing.

Still, 2 Chainz was a monster for a solid 18 months and it appears that momentum may have come to a screeching halt with B.O.A.T.S. II. In actuality, the album doesn’t sound much different from its predecessor; perhaps his core audience will show enough appreciation to carry Chainz through this next phase of his career.

But we’ve seen this movie before— and it don’t end well. 2 Chainz is likable enough (my 62-year-old pops actually rocks with him) and he definitely knows how to grind. It will be interesting to see if he is able to show the hip-hop world that this is just a minor hiccup and not the beginning of the end.