The Northwest may not seem as exciting as some of the other divisions, but it could send as many as three teams to the postseason. Here’s HHSR’s take on how the division will shake out.
Oklahoma City Thunder
What’s Hot: After making the playoffs for several years in a row — which included a Finals trip two season ago — the Thunder have successfully established a culture of winning in Oklahoma City. Obviously, this has everything to do with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Despite Jalen Rose’s claims that both of these young superstars will be gone once they’re current contracts expire, the Thunder still are in possession of two of the NBA’s 10 best players. Whenever you can say that, you’re automatically a title contender.
What’s Not Hot: Though reports are circulating that he may be back from his knee injury sooner than expected, OKC is still forced to start this season without Russell Westbrook. Westbrook isn’t the best player on this team (though we all know he often carries himself like he is, which really isn’t as terrible as most people think), but he is an elite scoring option that embodies who the Thunder are and how they want to play the game. The youthful and frenetic pace that has made them wildly entertaining has also made OKC extremely formidable. The loss of Westbrook for any stretch of time is extremely detrimental to the style of play and emotional makeup of this group. We saw much of those effects firsthand in last season’s playoffs.
We’re also a year removed from the James Harden trade. HHSR defended this move at the time, understanding that Harden was coming off a deer-in-headlights NBA Finals performance and that there was no guarantee that Harden was the type of talent that could carry a franchise because he had never before been asked to do so.
Sidebar: Nobody has been more critical of this deal from OKC’s standpoint than ESPN’s Bill Simmons. While there’s truth to his complaints, he constantly speaks on this deal from hindsight, calling Harden one of the top 10 players in the league, when at the time the deal was made, nobody knew Harden was of top 10 talent. This fact cannot be overlooked when evaluating this trade. That said…
It’s clear now that Sam Presti and the Thunder got taken to the cleaners in this deal and they’re still dealing with the consequences today. They’ve yet to find an adequate long-term replacement for Harden’s scoring and playmaking (the Kevin Martin rental having not worked out), hence the absence of Westbrook has placed nearly all the scoring load on Durant. Regardless, Oklahoma City must begin to develop their young players this year, specifically Jeremy Lamb, Steven Adams and Perry Jones III. They’ll definitely need their contributions in the spring.
What The Future Holds: Hopefully many more appearances on “Shaqtin’ a Fool” by Kendrick Perkins. Still, the Thunder have enough firepower with Durant and Westbrook for 80% of the games this season to win the Sweet Baby Yeezus division. A return trip to the Finals though? That’s another story.
Utah Jazz
What’s Hot: Hmm… How can you diplomatically say that a team doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell at winning 20 games?
Okay, that’s a bit harsh. But the Jazz don’t have much going on this season. Utah traded for Michigan guard and NCAA Tournament hero Trey Burke on draft night. Few players have made us eat our words in HHSR’s young existence more than Trey Burke. At the risk of getting burned by Burke again, it’s still hard to see him being an impact player in the NBA. For all the tenacity he possesses, the size and athleticism just isn’t there, which means it could be exceedingly difficult for him to get his shot off against bigger NBA guards. But when it comes to Burke, we’ve been wrong before.
The Jazz unsuccessfully attempted to lock up Gordon Hayward for the long haul, but the Indianapolis native will become a restricted free agent at season’s end. Utah is also heavily invested in two big men that were top 4 overall picks in the last three years in Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors. The duo combined for less than 17 points and 12 rebounds per game last year. There should a noticeable increase in those stats year, but a wise man said beware of the man who puts of great stats on a garbage team.
What’s Not Hot: Utah’s roster is in a weird spot. Four of their six highest paid players for this year are in the final year of their contract. Since no big name free agent would ever consider Utah as a destination, you’d have to imagine they’re positioning these expiring contracts as trade bait for an impact player come midseason. But if they can’t make a deal and their own lottery pick isn’t top five, what will be their next move?
Sidebar: In addition to their likely high lottery pick, Utah will also have the the Warriors 2014 first round pick.
What The Future Holds: There’s definitely a collection of young pieces on this team, the question is, can those young pieces actually hoop? And if not, can the Jazz coerce some team into taking on those pieces before word gets out they can’t play? The most important thing Utah GM Dennis Lindsey must do this year is decide if these guys, especially Kanter and Favors, are building blocks for the future (Favors just received an extension a few weeks ago, but you never know when a player could be dealt). As for 2013-14, the playoffs are absolutely out of the question.
What does KD have to do to get back to the Finals? Drop 35 a night?
Minnesota Timberwolves
What’s Hot: There aren’t any flashy shoe commercials with Big Sean, Common and 2 Chainz to celebrate it, but the return of Kevin Love is a huge deal for a Timberwolves franchise that was looking to turn the corner last season before Love was hit with multiple injuries to his shooting hand, limiting him to just 18 games. Love is a a rare talent thought— a 20/20 threat every night that can shoot over 40% from three for a season. And people forget K Love is only 25 years old. Ricky Rubio has blossomed into one of the better passers in the game and Minnesota brought in Kevin Martin to provide some much needed outside shooting.
Above all else, the Wolves dumped David Kahn (finally) and replaced him with Flip Saunders. It’s unknown how Flip will fare in this role, but it’s almost a virtual lock that he’ll will be better than Kahn was in the GM chair.
What’s Not Hot: Part of the reason Martin’s shooting is “much needed” is because Rubio still cannot throw a beach ball in the ocean. As flashy as some of his plays are, the consistency still isn’t there, especially considering the depth at the point guard position in the NBA today.
Love’s relationship with the T Wolves management has been tenuous at best over the last few years. Though he signed an extension in early 2012, and Flip Saunders has made it abundantly clear that Love is the organizations top priority, a poor start for Minny could get Love plotting an exit strategy— something he hasn’t totally put out of his mind (one would think), which could result in the trade many have expected for some time.
What The Future Holds: The key to this Minnesota season — aside from the health of Love & Rubio — is the play of third-year forward Derrick Williams. Selected second overall in 2011, Williams has failed to live up to expectations thus far.
If Williams makes a significant jump, the T Wolves will make the playoffs. Expect Minnesota to come up just short of the postseason, even with Williams improving some on his game. Regardless, the talent is there and HHSR expects to see an increase in his play, provided Rick Adelman gives him the opportunity.
Portland Trailblazers
What’s Hot: This team is like a better version of the Sacramento Kings. Lots of talent up & down the roster, but who’s going to play? And when? Good luck figuring that out. The good news is, LaMarcus Aldridge, Damien Lillard (last year’s ROY), Wes Matthews, Nick Batum…they can all hoop. They added C.J. McCollum (whom from a basketball standpoint, appears to be the same guy as Lillard), Robin Lopez, Mo Williams and Dorrell Wright over the summer.
What’s Not Hot: Remember when we said “good luck figuring that out”? Well, that’s the job in front of head coach Terry Stotts. The Blazers were also bitten by the injury bug recent years. If Aldridge (74 games last year to his credit) misses significant time for whatever reason, will Portland finally consider dealing their all-star power forward?
What The Future Holds: The Blazers make the bottom four of the West playoffs this year. Interestingly, Portland can slide anywhere from 6th to 10th in the conference standings when all is said and done. The starting lineup is solid, the bench is improved and the Rose Garden is always a tough place for visiting teams to play. Provided Stotts doesn’t screw this up, Portland should be in there.
Denver Nuggets
What’s Hot: Like Portland, there’s clearly talent all over this roster. A very long and athletic frontcourt makes the Nuggets formidable in the paint and the combination of Ty Lawson’s speed and Andre Miller’s savvy gives Denver an extremely unique look at the lead guard spot. Add Nate Robinson’s…Nate Robinson-ness…to the mix and chances are your point guards are going to have a long night when Denver comes to town.
What’s Not Hot: The Nuggets let their best overall player, Andre Iguodala, walk out the door for more cash this summer. Their roster also has no outside shooting to speak of until Danilo Gallinari returns from his torn ACL. And even then, who knows how long it will be until he’s effective again? Worst of all, the Nuggets lost last season’s Coach of the Year George Karl, replacing him with the capable, albeit inexperienced, Brian Shaw.
What The Future Holds: If teams like the Trail Blazers are going to jump up into the playoff picture, somebody is going to have to drop out— Denver will be one of those teams in the West in 2014. With their best player having left town, their (arguably) second best player coming off a serious knee injury and the coach that’s led them to the playoffs for the last nine consecutive years no longer on the bench, expect the Nuggets to slip a bit.
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