In an interesting change of pace, the NBA decided not to give us a Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals. After four years of competing for championships, LeBron James, for some reason, decided to trade in his annual ticket to the Finals for a septic tank of an organization known as the Los Angeles Lakers. Predictably, the Cavaliers bottomed out, while the Warriors (KD, Curry, Klay & Dray in tact) sailed back to the NBA’s biggest stage.
Stepping into the ring as the new challenger is Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors. It was just barely over a year ago when yours truly floated the idea of a Kawhi/DeRozan swap on The Preseason Podcast of the Year (see 11:30 mark). Two months later, Raptors GM Masai Ujiri rolled the dice on a player who could easily walk away for nothing five weeks from now. Needless to say, Kawhi has been the best thing to happen to this franchise since the 2000 Slam Dunk Contest (ironically held in Oakland). His 31.2 points on 50% shooting, 8.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists over 18 playoff games has lifted Toronto to new heights.
Sidebar: It’s worth noting Kawhi’s playoff run pales in comparison to that of LeBron’s last year, the same LeBron who everyone claims is washed now.
The green Raptors now must face the five-time defending Western Conference Champion, and two-time defending NBA Champion Golden State Warriors. Given the extremes of these two teams, there’s a lot we know, but also a lot we don’t know headed into Game 1.
What We Know…
Golden State is playing with supreme confidence
The injury to Kevin Durant has galvanized this team in the name of “the underdog”. It’s not often a team making its fifth straight Finals can conduct themselves like an underdog, but the Warriors were afforded this opportunity. Consider this one helluva silver lining to the KD calf strain.
What We Don’t Know…
How Golden State will respond by not having home court to start the NBA Finals
This is uncharted territory for a team with buckets of experience. In each of the last four NBA Finals, the Warriors started the series with home court advantage. And in all but one of those series, they were able to jump out to a 2-0 series lead on the Cavaliers.
Beating any team four out of five games is a tall task, let alone a legendary squad like the Dubs (although the Cavs did pull it off once). But that task turns from tall to Everest if Toronto were to drop the opening two at home.
This series is reminiscent of the 1993 Bulls/Suns matchup, when an all-time team gunning for it’s third straight title hit the road to start the NBA Finals against a new team with a rookie coach and one superstar, who had changed conferences the previous summer, and with his arrival, changed the culture as well.
Chicago took the first two and Phoenix was unable to win four out of five.
Sidebar: Do yourself a favor and watch prime Jordan & prime Barkley go at it.
What We Know…
Toronto’s home crowd is legit
You might despise Drake, you might rock with him (either way, you must respect his run); whether or not the fans in Jurassic Park are feeding off Drake’s energy or the team’s, you must admit the Toronto is not just a hockey town anymore.
What We Don’t Know…
How pending free agency decisions will impact Kawhi and Kevin Durant
The most likely answer is “not at all”, but we can’t entirely rule it out free agency’s role. Leonard will give it his all regardless, and we know KD will do the same if he’s able to return to the court. But think about Durant’s sensitivity for a moment—imagine if Durant is secretly rooting for his team to fail in his absence (at least some of us think it’s plausible, and we’re waaaaay beyond this point). If the Warriors win without him, he almost has to leave. Does that force him to rush back to the court? Or maybe he takes his time coming back because he wants to leave, and this scenario provides him with the perfect alibi? Kawhi’s dream scenario for leaving could be him leading the Raps to a title, thus freeing him of any obligation to “finish what he started” in Toronto. But if he falls short, does that increase or decrease the odds “he the north”?
What We Know…
Stephen Curry has something to prove
Let’s put this out there again: You can’t win championships with your point guard as your #1 scoring option. It’s not a rule we created, history deems it so.
Skeptics will first point to Curry, who was the best player and top scoring option on the 2015 champion Warriors. But they defeated a Cavs team void of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. In fact, they got by without having to play a healthy Jrue Holiday, Tony Allen, Mike Conley or Patrick Beverley in 2015, so we’ll throw that year out. The 2017 and 2018 Dubs were led by Durant. This year, Steph could lead Golden State to a title, but he wouldn’t have done it from start to finish this season (and yes, there’s a difference between doing it for 10 games and doing it since October).
Others may point to Isiah Thomas, but he was 50/50 a scorer and distributor. He only averaged 16 shots per game for his career—not exactly the aggression of a “score first” mentality. And even if you count Zeke & Steph, that’s only three titles out of 71 years of NBA basketball.
But Curry is out to prove he can carry this squad to the top once again, qualifiers be dammed. And he’s gunning for that Finals MVP, an award we probably shouldn’t put so much emphasis on (Cedric Maxwell, Chauncey Billups, Tony Parker and Andre Iguodala all have one), but we do.
Here’s where the series will ultimately be won and lost…
What We Know…
Kawhi Leonard is a dawg
The stats were mentioned above. What wasn’t mentioned was the leadership and the defense, the latter of which was most evident during the Eastern Conference Finals.
Also, the clutch factor…
And the “IN THE FACE!!!!” factor…
count for something, too.
What We Don’t Know…
If the Raptors role players are able to step up on this stage
Fred VanVleet had the best three-game stretch of his career in Games 4-6 versus Milwaukee. Serge Ibaka has elevated his play this postseason. Marc Gasol was huge in the two home games that squared the Eastern Conference Finals at two games apiece. Kyle Lowry shot with confidence and played surprisingly well throughout that same series. Many things came together for the Raptors against the Bucks, but this was after we watched their role players freeze up against the 76ers.
What can we reasonably expect from this group on this stage against this team? It’s fair to have a pessimistic outlook.
What We Know…
The Warriors are as battle-tested of a team we’ve ever seen
We mentioned the Bulls/Suns series—it’s good to be the Bulls in that scenario. The Warriors vast experience advantage creates a certain confidence that permeates throughout the team, even reaching those less tenured players, such as Alfonso McKinnie and Jonas Jerebko.
Toronto matches up well with Golden State and is a stern defensive test, but not since the Celtics of the 60’s have we seen a team in five straight Finals.
Advantage: Warriors
What We Don’t Know…
If the pending returns of DeMarcus Cousins and Kevin Durant are what’s best for the Warriors
This is where Toronto has a chance. They can’t beat a fully loaded Warriors team four times. And it’s unlikely they could beat a Durant-less and Boogie-less Warriors team. But they could have a chance against a team struggling to find its rhythm as it transitions the team from Curry’s stewardship back to KD.
Durant has a lot riding on this series for a guy who might be lucky only to play in half of it. If he (and Cousins, who will also be looking for a new contract) is brought back into the lineup, he may easily feel pressured to assert himself in a way that could disrupt Golden State’s offense. And perhaps on a Freudian level (watch this), Durant subconsciously wouldn’t be all that heartbroken if the Dubs lose, even if he plays. After all, an L would in part validate his decision to join the Warriors in the first place—that he wasn’t just “taking the easy way out”; that Golden State doesn’t just win a ring as soon as the balls are rolled out; that he didn’t ruin the league; that he was an integral part of their success and not just a “luxury”.
Sounds like a reach, right? But ask yourself: Would anything within the psyche of Kevin Durant shock you at this point? Though he’d never admit it, it almost appears Durant is pattering his off-the-court moves after LeBron.
In a way, KD played himself because he’s in a no-win situation. If they win and he stays, then he’s continuing to duck the challenge of leading his own team to the pinnacle. If they win and he leaves (especially to play with Kyrie), he’s admitting his last three titles don’t carry the weight that they should and (like LeBron) he would be seeking true fulfillment of his legacy at his third stop. And much like the Jordan/Kobe debate, how can Durant be better if he spends so much energy trying to be like the very man he’s chasing?
Watching it all unfold will be truly entertaining when the Warriors inevitably win. Golden State hasn’t been untouchable during this five-year sprint, but if they haven’t lost to anyone with Durant, why should we pick them to lose now? Even with a hobbled KD and Boogie…
Warriors in 5.