In the last week, Magic Johnson quit, Luke Walton “agreed to part ways” with the Lakers and LeBron James mysteriously disappeared and reappeared in Brooklyn while all this was going on. The Lakers are a mess (as discussed on our most recent podcast), but they’re on a plane to Aruba now. Meanwhile, 16 teams continue their quest for a championship (okay, only about six teams have a chance to win this thing, but we’ll play along).
With the 2019 NBA Playoffs upon us, let’s take a quick look at the most important player (MIP) from each series, both from the standpoint of surviving the next two weeks, and his team’s long-term prognosis.
(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs (6) Brooklyn Nets
MIP: Joel Embiid
More specifically, Embiid’s left knee. Knee problems have contributed to the 7-foot monster missing at least 17 games in each of the last three seasons, on top of missing the first two full seasons of his career. Now with Embiid’s knee flaring up at the worst possible time, the Sixers are faced with the grim possibility of entering the playoffs without their best player, against an exciting Brooklyn team led by D’Angelo Russell, who is just now starting to realize how good he’s always been capable of being.
With Embiid doubtful for Game 1, Philly is still equipped to win with Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris and the perpetually underachieving Ben Simmons. But the bottom line is this team cannot survive Round 2 without a healthy Embiid. And we all know this.
It’s becoming increasingly difficult to trust this process (which we never trusted in the first place), especially when the chemistry has felt off all season.
Sixers in six.
(2) Toronto Raptors vs (7) Orlando Magic
MIP: Aaron Gordon
It would be easy to just list the best player in each series (clearly that’s Kawhi Leonard in this case), but Gordon was cemented as a cornerstone piece of the Magic’s future plans after cashing out to the tune of $84M last summer. This year though, the former #4 overall pick has averaged only 16 points and 7.4 boards per game, which ain’t great.
Nikola Vucevic has been the best player for a Magic team that consistently slays the NBA’s best teams and wets the bed against the bottom-feeders. But he’ll be a free agent in July and may not return. Terrence Ross is up right now, but has been up and down all year (in other words, he’s still Terrence Ross). This is supposed to be Gordon’s team—we need to see more.
But we probably won’t.
Raptors in five.
(1) Golden State Warriors vs (8) Los Angeles Clippers
MIP: Draymond Green
Steph is great. KD is great. Klay is great. And the Clips, albeit a fun story, have no real shot here. But Draymond Green has been the emotional leader and dirty work MVP of this team for five years…only he’s played like garbage this season. In addition to seeing his defense, rebounding, assists and scoring slip — and pissing off Steve Kerr — Green may have detonated the team’s relationship with Kevin Durant, which as we look back on it, may have been the beginning of the end of KD’s time by The Bay.
Green can’t shoot (the disrespect started last season) and if things go left, his hot-headedness could conflict with KD, or worse, DeMarcus Cousins. Having been so instrumental to this team’s success, Draymond needs to use this series to get himself together before the Dubs make another title run.
Warriors in four.
(2) Denver Nuggets vs (7) San Antonio Spurs
MIP: Jamal Murray
Even without Duncan, Parker and Ginóbili, you kind of know what the Spurs are. You know they won’t beat themselves. You know LaMarcus Aldridge will be solid, and DeMar DeRozan will likely shrink some, but the Spurs infrastructure should help prevent, or offset that.
However, we don’t know about the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic will get his 20 and will brilliantly set his teammates up for success. But he’s not a primary ball-handler, and Denver will need a creator to step up when things break down. That’s Murray.
Denver also has zero playoff experience as a group—Gregg Popovic has to be salivating at this matchup. This matchup has serious upset potential.
Spurs in 6.
(4) Boston Celtics vs (5) Indiana Pacers
MIP: Gordon Hayward
The Ringer’s Bill Simmons floated an interesting theory that the injury to Marcus Smart could unclog the Celtics rotation issues, allowing Hayward to get the consistent minutes he needs to return to all-star form.
The Pacers miraculous stayed afloat after Victor Oladipo went down for the season, but limped their way to a 8-14 finish to the season. The Celtics should win fairly handily, but a rejuvenated Hayward could work wonders for a team that’s struggled to find their chemistry and identity all season.
Celtics in five.
(3) Portland Trail Blazers vs (6) Oklahoma City Thunder
MIP: Damian Lillard
Lillard’s running mate C.J. McCollum could’ve very easily slid into this spot as he just returned from a left knee strain last week. McCollum was on a minutes restriction for the two contests he appeared in to end the season—needless to say he has a ways to go before returning to peak C.J. With the devastating injury to Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers need Lillard now more than ever to play like a superstar.
It’s interesting how Lillard’s approval rating appears to be at an all-time high. The aforementioned Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo have agreed that Lillard is a shoo-in for All-NBA, and clearly better than the likes of Kyrie Irving. In fact, Twitter polls (the most scientific of all data) have been conducted to the same effect.
Based on my guy @SnottieDrippen‘s point, I wondered where folks were on this one:
— Jabari Ali Davis (@JabariDavisNBA) March 27, 2019
Lillard has reached this status despite failing to get out of the first round in each of the last two years (both sweeps), and suffering a first round L in 2015 (4-1) when LaMarcus Aldridge was still his teammate. The only recent playoff success Dame Dolla has seen came in 2016 when Portland was getting clobbered by the Clippers in round one, only to see the series turn instantly when Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both got injured in Game 4.
Sidebar: Portland got their ass kicked in Games 1 and 2. They won Game 3 at home by eight, and was in a close game in the third quarter of Game 4 when CP3 and Blake went out. The Blazers outscored the Clips by 12 in the fourth…and that was that.
Did everyone forget last season when Lillard was locked up by Jrue Holiday, leading to the Blazers sweep at the hands of the higher seeded Pelicans? Dame averaged under 19 points and five assists for the series, shooting an abysmal .361 from the field and .280 from three, and four turnovers per game.
Last year, I called for Anthony Davis to step up and demonstrate he was as good as everyone said. He did. This year, it’s on Damian Lillard to show and prove, because really, he hasn’t proven anything yet.
Thunder in six.
(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs (8) Detroit Pistons
MIP: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Perhaps the most impressive thing about this possible-MVP season for Antetokounmpo is that’s he’s pretty much forced us all to drop the “Greek Freak” moniker. Most people simply refer to him as “Giannis” now, like we do “LeBron”, “Shaq” and “Kobe”. He’s on that level now…
But he’s still never won a playoff series. In fact, Milwaukee hasn’t escaped round one since 2001. With Blake Griffin again injured at the end of the season (Blake and Paul can’t catch a break unless it’s a bone—no wonder the Clippers never worked), the Bucks should dominate Detroit, even with their own injuries. All the more reason for Giannis to exert his supremacy in this series, which he can the use to fuel his confidence heading into a second round rematch against the Celtics.
Bucks in four.
(4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz
MIP: Chris Paul
This could easily change to James Harden in later playoff series. But for now, it’s all about Paul and his ability to A) stay healthy (as mentioned several times) and B) perform at a high level, just as he did last season versus the Jazz.
Harden has flamed out in the playoffs on many occasions, but playing typical Beard-ball is something he should be able to accomplish against the Jazz. Utah is far from a pushover, and it’s quite possible Houston is not the same team they were last year, when they should’ve made the NBA Finals. But Harden, Paul and P.J. Tucker’s moxie should be enough to get Houston, who have lost only five times since the All-Star break, to the next level.
Rockets in six.