If we’re being honest, debate shows, barbershops (the open ones anyway) and social media are just about the three worst places to go for quality sports pontification. It’s no coincidence that here, you’ll find many of drivers behind the belief that the 2020-21 NFL season will tell us all we need to know about the great Bill Belichick/Tom Brady credit pie debate.
“Who’s more responsible for the New England Patriots’ success?”
It’s a sexy and totally unique talking point. It’s not often we see the two preeminent figures behind the greatest run in modern American team sports separate after two decades of dominance, with neither person opting for retirement. At the risk of being a soaking wet blanket at a time when we should be grateful to have football at all, here’s 10 reasons why the notion that the success (or lack thereof) of the Patriots and Buccaneers will tell us who contributed more to New England’s dynasty is at best white noise, and at worst, utter nonsense.
- Brady’s Contribution to “The Patriot Way”: For all the (deserved) credit Belichick receives for establishing a culture in New England, Brady helped build and sustain that culture. Both men came to the Patriots the same year—Belichick as head coach and Brady as the fourth QB on the depth chart. Yet the winning didn’t begin until Brady became the starter. From allowing Belichick to chew him out in front of the team, to taking less money than he could’ve each year, the culture never works without Tom, and it will likely live on long after his departure from the team. Only he won’t get the recognition for it.
- Belichick’s Contribution to Brady’s Development: Contrary to popular belief, Tom Brady was dope from jump (e.g. 4th quarter & OT of the Tuck Rule Game, SB XXXVI final drive, led NFL in TD passes in his 2nd year), but he’s made it clear he wouldn’t be the quarterback he is today without Belichick. Going against the greatest defensive mind of his generation in practice every day only served to enhance Brady’s development. Everything Bill poured into Tom over 20 seasons he’s taking with him to Tampa, and therefore doesn’t provide an accurate read on what Brady is without Bill’s influence.
- Brady Chose His Destination: You’d need to hypothetically plug Brady into a mid-tier offense with garden variety weaponry to get a truer answer to this question. Not an offense that was top five with Jameis Winston at the helm. Brady wisely selected a team that theoretically makes his job much easier, THEN lured Rob Gronkowski out of retirement and (on some level) facilitated a trade of Gronk FROM New England TO Tampa. That isn’t fair to Belichick.
- Sample Size: Brady and Belichick were together 20 years, and we’re going to use one season apart to guide all of our conclusions about their impact? Defenses typically require a full season to obtain the necessary amount of game tape on a player before they learn his tendencies and begin to exploit his weaknesses. So many QBs have had one great season and were never the same—how are we to know that one great TB12 or BBNE season independent of the other could be duplicated in future seasons? We’d need many years (plural) of data to learn anything substantial.
- Cam Newton: Suppose New England succeeds without Brady—we’re all going to credit JUST Belichick? Not the finally healthy and motivated former Heisman Trophy winner/National Champion/#1 overall pick/league MVP who once took a team to the Super Bowl with a defensive-minded coach and Ted Ginn as his #1 receiver? Makes sense.
- Brady’s Age: Brady’s floor from last season is better than that of so many other QBs (4000+ yards, 24 TDs, 8 picks), but his stats have slipped from his age 40 to 41 to 42 seasons. If they slide further in 2020, why are we to assume it’s because he’s no longer sheltered by Belichick? Couldn’t it just be that…he’s old? For Pete’s sake, Happy Days was the top show on television when he was born.
To a lesser extent, Bill Belichick’s age could also be a factor. At 68, it’s reasonable to wonder if he’s lost his fastball, too.
- The “System” Myth: There is no system that makes Tom Brady great. The next time somebody feeds you this, hit them with this line of questioning: Can you describe the system? What’s it called? Do all three of the Pats’ offensive coordinators during Brady’s tenure get credit for it? Why hasn’t the system been successfully replicated elsewhere after they left? Why does Belichick (aka the defensive genius) receive so much credit for it? Is this the same system that went to the Super Bowl two years ago using ball control and defense, or the one that went to the Super Bowl with Brady throwing for nearly 5000 yards and 50 touchdowns?
The system discussion has long been used to discredit Brady, while typically propping up Belichick. When forced to describe it though, the “system” truthers usually land in the neighborhood of game-planning for the next week’s opponent. Everybody loves Lamar Jackson, but he (smartly) had an entire system built around his strengths, and he’s managed to sidestep critics like Cincinnati Bengals defenders. Nobody uses the system argument to take the shine off Montana’s, Young’s, Favre’s and Rodgers’ rings, even though they all won using the same system. They don’t knock Michael Jordan for winning within the Triangle Offense either; the same Triangle Offense proven to win multiple titles with a lesser version of Jordan as the centerpiece.
If New England succeeds this year, it’ll be because Belichick/Josh McDaniels devise an offense around Newton’s strengths. It’s unlikely he’ll be asked to do the same things Brady did because Cam can run the 40 in under nine seconds.
- Biases: Let’s keep it a buck—nobody is changing their mind on this issue. Whatever your stance, you’ll double-down on it and will ostensibly have evidence to justify it at season’s end. It’s why this article exists. But the pro-Belichick/anti-Brady people were ready to hitch their wagon to Jarrett Stidham just a few months ago before the Pats made a move, which indicates Belichick wasn’t comfortable going into the year with Stidham as the unquestioned starter. The fact that folks already believed in Stidham because of what Belichick did with Matt Cassel, Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy Garoppolo proves they are already backing Bill, no matter what. Yet the Patriots weren’t so confident in their system that they believed the quarterback didn’t matter. So why should you?
- COVID-19: Belichick can’t even prep his new QB the way he traditionally would; Brady can’t have real practices with his new teammates. Although the playing field is level across the league, the men in question are being measured against their performances from season’s past, where the circumstances were very different.
- We Already Know the Answer: Belichick won two championships as a defensive coordinator. He’s gone on to be a head coach in 117 games where Tom Brady was NOT his starting signal-caller (more than seven full seasons, or 19 fewer games than Vince Lombardi’s entire coaching career). He’s amassed a 54-63 career record in those games (.462), roughly the same win percentage as the 2019 New York Jets, and a 1-1 mark in the playoffs. Brady has yet to play without Belichick, the greatest coach of his generation, because he hasn’t had to.
The credit pie game is dead. It’s reasonable to conclude that while both men greatly enhanced one another and are legends of their craft, one should clearly be viewed historically as the primary catalyst for the dynastic ways of the New England Patriots. Despite the fact that none of 2020’s results matter, this train left the station long ago. So regardless of the outcome, simply adjust your cap over your eyes and do your best to feign interest in this conversation once the movie ends.