At the start of the 2009 NBA playoffs, Nike released a hilarious ad campaign centered around Kobe Bryant and LeBron James (and Zydrunas Ilgauskas) in puppet form. Like the rest of the world, Nike assumed Bron’s Cavs and Mamba’s Lakers would meet in the NBA Finals. But a funny thing happened on the way to foregone conclusions: the Cavaliers lost in the conference finals.
There are no guarantees in sports. In fact, upsets happen all the time. We saw it in this year’s Super Bowl, and we saw at least one, possibly two, upsets in the NBA’s conference semifinal round. So if upsets are far more commonplace than most of us are willing to admit, will we see the Raptors or Thunder in the 2016 NBA Finals?
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (2) Toronto Raptors
Let’s see…there’s getting hot, there’s catching fire, there’s what the Cavaliers did to the poor Atlanta Hawks. SEVENTY-SEVEN three-pointers over four games; the record for any series of any length of games is 79. So you better believe Cleveland will be chucking up even more three’s this series, for better or worse. I say “or worse”, because it’s virtually impossible for the Cavs to keep up this torrid shooting pace. It’s unsustainable. As soon as the Cavs come back to earth, which will likely be tomorrow night following a nine-day layoff, Toronto will have their shot.
Their “shot”— that seems to be the prevailing wisdom entering this series. What shot do the Raptors have? They’ve looked anything but impressive on their way to the first conference finals appearance in team history. There’s two ways Toronto, an inexperience/heavy underdog, can approach this series. First, listen to the way Raptors head coach Dwane Casey (that is the face of a man that has to play the Cavs in the next round) answers this question:
HUH?!?!
Did he just say his team can’t win the NBA Championship?? Yeah, he did pretty much.
Then there’s the Kyle Lowry technique:
“LeBron is probably one of the best players in the league, besides Steph…” — Kyle Lowry
So while the coach is taking humility to levels so extreme it resulted in him sonning his own team, the star player — be it intentionally or unintentionally — is out here poking the bear that is the four-time MVP. It seems as though the never-been-this-far-before Raptors are unsure of how to approach this thing. Here’s a free tip, Toronto: throw everything…EVERYTHING…you have into winning Game 1. The Cavs will be rusty. The Cavs have been sweet-talked by the media for a week. The Cavs are overconfident. The Cavs probably should’ve lost Game 1 to Detroit AND Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Raptors have notoriously struggled in Game 1’s, and they need to believe they can beat the Cavs because no one is giving them a shot.
HISTORY: The Raptors become the 1st team in NBA History to be eliminated from the ECFinals on the same day they made the ECFinals.
— Sports Nation Ohio (@SN_Ohio) May 15, 2016
If Toronto can get Game 1, those three’s that flowed so freely from the fingertips of everyone wearing a wine & gold jersey will be weighed a bit by pressure the Cavs have not yet experienced.
Ultimately the Raptors’ hopes rest on the shoulders of #7, who showed Cleveland earlier this year what “the Kyle Lowry technique” really looks like. Lowry destroyed the Cavs this season, but DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valančiūnas are both struggling with injuries (Valančiūnas will likely miss a game or two). Center Bismack Biyombo had a breakout series for the Raps as a replacement, but he won’t be able to roam the paint freely with Tristan Thompson patrolling the interior for Cleveland. And with Kevin Love playing the five and stretching Biyombo out to the three-point line, the former Charlotte Bobcat may be neutralized altogether.
Where the Cavaliers biggest advantage lies (ya know, besides LeBron) is behind the arc. Cleveland will still have a significant advantage from three even if/when the Cavs suffer the aforementioned regression to the mean. The Cavs are shooting .462 from three in the playoffs, compared to just .303 for the Raptors. While the two East finalists both shot roughly the same percentage during the season, it was Toronto that gave up .373 shooting from the promised land, second-worst in the NBA.
A loss or two would likely benefit the Cavs in the long run. They’re poised to potentially win a championship by defeating only one really good team, and going undefeated before the Finals could be dangerous. But LeBron James should have an extra bounce in his step this series because he knows he doesn’t have to deal with Kawhi Leonard in the Finals.
At the risk of sparking an international incident, Raptors fans should consider this payback for Toronto exporting Anthony Bennett to Cleveland. President Obama may need to get Trudeau on the horn ASAP.
Cavaliers in four.
Anthony’s pick: Cavs in four
Kenneth’s pick: Cavs in five
(1) Golden State Warriors vs (3) Oklahoma City Thunder
The decision was made to move off the San Antonio Spurs as my Western Conference champion pick at the start of the postseason. Clearly that was the correct decision. The Spurs won 67 games, a feat accomplished by only a handful of teams in the history of the league, but once the brackets were set, a scenario in which the Spurs would win the title was the basketball equivalent of scaling Everest. For those who backed the Spurs at the start of the playoffs, the ask was for them to basically defeat Oklahoma City, Golden State and Cleveland in consecutive series. That’s practically unfair. If they would’ve the title, the case could be made they were the greatest team ever. But just as they did to San Antone in 2012, the Thunder found their rhythm and ko’d the Spurs in impressive fashion.
Sidebar: Something tells me San Antonio will be alright though.
We spoke about the potential demise of OKC as we know them at the start of the semis. Perhaps not-so amazingly, the Thunder emerged victorious. The Thunder have now made the Western Conference Finals four of the last six years, with the two years they fell short being last year (Durant was hurt) and in 2013 (Westbrook was hurt). The Spurs textbook precision was ultimately no match for Oklahoma City’s athleticism and versatility. For the first time in what felt like forever, the Thunder got consistent production from their role players. Steven Adams averaged a double-double against the Spurs, and teamed with Enes Kanter in crunch time to form a physical yet skilled duo for which San Antonio had little answer. Adams’ dives to the hoop on pick and rolls are symbolic of the downhill avalanche this Thunder team can be when things are functioning properly.
As you probably know, the Warriors swept the season series against Durant, Westbrook & Co., but two of the three games were highly competitive. In order to give themselves their best shot at another upset, the Thunder must rely on one word: courage. Oklahoma City must have the courage to stick to their size advantages over Golden State. The trio of Adams, Kanter and Serge Ibaka trumps that of Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli and Maurice Speights (unless we’re talking about an uncalled moving screen contest, then Bogut wins this thing on his own). The wildcard in all this though, emphasis on “wild”, is Draymond Green.
Love him or hate him, Draymond was spectacular against Portland in round two. He posted LeBron-like averages of 22.2 points, 11.2 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 3.2 blocks and 1.8 steals per night over the six-game series. Green also shot over .450 from the field, over .430 from three and over. 820 on the foul line. Frankly, it was the best basketball we’ve ever seen him play…but all anyone wanted to talk about was Stephen Curry.
Well, almost anyone.
In this series, Draymond is the X factor to end all X factors. It’ll be up to him and his unique skill-set to once again offset the size “disadvantage” the Warriors will be faced with up front. But will Billy Donovan be bold enough to stick with Adams, Kanter and or Ibaka when Golden State’s small-ball death lineup is running wild?
If they do, I honestly believe they will win this series. Golden State was out-rebounded by 30 (THIRTY!) in their February 27 tilt. The Thunder were the top rebounding team in the NBA this season, and even though the Warriors won the game, it took a masterful 45-point performance from Curry to get the job done. If Steph is required to hit 10 three’s four times this series, the Warriors will be at the crib in two weeks. Fortunately for the Dubs, Klay Thompson has also decided to show up in these playoffs (over 27.0 ppg, .475 from three). Klay will likely be asked to guard Russell Westbrook considerably, allowing Steve Kerr to again hide Steph Curry on defense by sticking him on Andre Roberson. Dion Waiters must come off the bench and make Steph work defensively.
Sidebar: It’s also worth pointing out Klay Thompson made the third-most three’s by a player in a single season ever in the NBA this year. And you probably didn’t even know that.
Overall, both of these teams have had their problems defensively, but it feels more like a permanent issue with the Thunder, even despite how well they locked up the Spurs in the final three games of their series. It could be that OKC has gotten over their inability to hold leads in the fourth quarter, or it could just be San Antonio was ill equipped to capitalize on the Thunder’s late-game mishaps. Golden State won’t have that problem.
Apart from the fact that each team can rely on their top scorer to carry the day, this series will likely come down to A) OKC’s ability to punish the Warriors for going small, and their willingness to stick to their size advantage, and B) the turnover battle, as both teams are notoriously loose with the basketball. Each of these squads turned it over about 15 times a game, which was near the bottom of the league. The team that’s slightly more cautious will likely have the upper hand.
Cautious is one word that we cannot use to describe Russell Westbrook. I was defending him long before it became cool, but the chaotic pace of this series will likely favor the smaller, swifter, more efficient Warriors. I’m sticking with my pre-playoff prediction for the Western Conference (Draymond better bring his A game), but know this Warriors team is beatable.
Warriors in seven.
Anthony’s pick: Warriors in six
Kenneth’s pick: Warriors in six
Again, there are no guarantees in sports. But there’s a reason why the favorites are the favorites, and sometimes the favorites take care of business.
Perhaps another major upset is on the horizon in these 2016 NBA playoffs, just not in the conference finals.