With a predictable 2-2 record after a tough slate of games last week, our record picking Wildcard Weekend in HHSR history sits at 20-8. But it was hard not to feel cheated at the NFC games for ending the way they did. With the Seahawks play-calling ranging somewhere between grossly inept and all-time stupid, and knowing the Bears would be on a plane to Los Angeles had Doug Pederson simply decided not to ice Cody Parkey, it’s easy to exit Wildcard Weekend believing the better team lost both games.
But here we are—the Eagles are flying high again, this time down to New Orleans, while Cowboys advanced to face the Rams. In the AFC, we went 2-0, correctly predicting both road teams to win. We also correctly had three road teams winning last weekend, however we only got two of them correct (damn Brian Schottenheimer…what is it about Schottenheimers in the playoffs???) and ended 3-1 against the spread.
So where does that leave us this weekend? Let’s dive into these four impossible games!
Sidebar: For those scoring at home, we’re 17-7 lifetime picking Divisional Round games. Check the site…it’s all on here.
Indianapolis Colts (#6) at Kansas City Chiefs (#1) (-5)
The Colts are literally doing everything well right now. Winners of five straight and 10 of 11, Indy is the hottest team in the playoffs. The vastly improved defense and revamped offensive line has finally given Andrew Luck an adequate supporting cast to showcase his fabulous skill set. It led to a 4,600 yard/39 TD season, and more importantly, a well-balanced attack. Running back Marlon Mack rumbled for 148 yards and a score last Saturday in Houston (if one more football person or talking head says “return of the Mack” please shoot me in the face).
Of more immediate concern to Kansas City is the fact that they cannot stop anybody. Ever. Even a middle of the road defense would have the Chiefs poised to win their first Super Bowl since Hank Stram. But the Chiefs finished 24th in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed. With Andy Reid’s supernova offense racking up points like pinball, it stands to reason they’d yield a ton of passing yards to teams desperate to catch up. This did happen, but KC inexplicably ranked 27th in rushing yards allowed. This is way more troubling—basically teams did whatever they wanted to this defense—Andrew Luck will be wearing a bib to the stadium on Saturday.
Lost in the hysteria around Patrick Mahomes’ electric first season as a starter was the Chiefs losses all came against their toughest opponents and Mahomes was accountable for seven turnovers in those Ls to the Patriots, Rams, Seahawks and Chargers. His immense talent leads to some occasional sloppy play, which Kansas City cannot get away with against good teams given their lousy defense.
KC is also in the midst of one of the oddest funks in sports. Long considered to possess one of the best home field advantages, the Chiefs haven’t won a postseason game at Arrowhead since Snoop dropped Doggystyle. Some of their losses have been mind-boggling—most all of them Kansas City was favored, just like this weekend. Andy Reid has also had a helluva time exercising his playoff demons. What Kansas City can’t afford is getting off to a slow start, or being in a dogfight late, because those demons will reappear faster than you can say “holding, #72 offense“.
Sidebar: It hasn’t all been roses for KC on the road either. Ask the Colts.
Fortunately, Damien Williams has filled in more than admirably for the departed Kareem Hunt, and the Chiefs offense hasn’t missed a beat. But to believe the Chiefs will win is a belief that Patrick Mahomes is special enough to erase all the negative history and an awful defense in his first ever playoff game. This one could be a classic, but like the other KC losses this year, the Chiefs won’t be able to get a stop when it matters.
Colts pull the upset.
Dallas Cowboys (#4) at Los Angeles Rams (#2) (-7)
As the world will rightfully be focused on a battle of the two best running backs in the league, the best player on the field will be rocking #99 for the Rams.
Aaron Donald has quietly put together arguably the best season by an interior lineman in NFL history. His 20.5 sacks led the league, and were only 2.5 short of the all-time single-season record. While the Cowboys may design enough screens to neutralize his pass rush, it’s likely that he will be able to make a significant play or two. The real question will be whether or not Donald can convince his teammates to finally put together a polished defensive effort against a good team. The Rams have the talent to do it, but we haven’t seen it much in 2018.
Conversely, Dallas’ defense looked amazing stopping the run last week, but showed signs of weakness on the few occasions Seattle freed Russell Wilson to throw the ball. The aforementioned lackluster Seahawks gameplan was hardly any sort of tune-up for the wunderkind Sean McVay, who evidently is so talented, he can get anyone a job as a head coach in the NFL via osmosis. McVay will come up with creative ways to get Todd Gurley the ball in space and, assuming he’s healthy, Gurley will deliver.
Sidebar: Gurley once caught a 53-yard TD against Dallas.
Ya boy picked against an inexperienced Rams team last January, and was rewarded. The moment was just a tad too big for McVay, Goff and Gurley (and Pharoh Cooper). This year, the Rams loaded up on vets that should help them in this moment and one can only assume they’ll show some growth. Dallas will attempt to hand Ezekiel Elliott the ball 35 some odd times to win this game, but that’s too much for any back to handle, and “America’s Team” ain’t all that impressive once they depart Big D, embarrassingly averaging less than 11 points per game in their five road losses.
The Cowboys are amazingly the first playoff team since 1988 to not have a starter over 30, and so long as they don’t pay Dak Prescott a fortune, should be set up for a nice run in the next few years. But the Rams are just one small step ahead.
Cowboys cover, but come up just short.
(If Gurley ain’t 100%, throw all of this out.)
Los Angeles Chargers (#5) at New England Patriots (#2) (-4)
For months, all we’ve heard is that the Patriots dynasty is on its last legs. And every talking head has been trying to get in on the ground floor and predict the exact day Tom Brady officially falls off.
Newsflash: You don’t get credit for predicting the inevitable—Tom will be washed one day, but these lame talking heads are treating this more like a baby pool than football analysis. What they all fail to realize is when everybody counts out the Pats is when they thrive the most.
The day after the Patriots and Chargers play this weekend will mark the 12-year anniversary of the Pats defeating an 11 Pro Bowler-San Diego Chargers team as heavy underdogs, when everyone thought they had fallen off. Today, all we’re hearing is the Chargers are the better team with more talent, and that may be true. But a dearth of talent never stopped the Patriots before.
In a down year, New England has statistically a better defense and offense than the Chargers. LA is a phenomenal road team, but this trip to Foxborough is on the heels of another cross-country flight to Baltimore. The weather is supposed to be shitty, which also favors the cold weather-tested Pats.
Despite the fact we don’t know what the Patriots will get from Rob Gronkowski, if anything, he may actually be healthier than either of the Chargers top two offensive weapons. With Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen banged up, it’s hard to envision LA mounting a formidable offensive attack in the snow against a New England team whose secondary improved as the season progressed. Tom Brady, entering his 38th career playoff game, has never lost to Phillip Rivers, and the Patriots defeated every playoff team on their schedule this season.
We had LA in the Super Bowl before the season, and sort of backtracked and leaned Pats on the latest podcast. The winner of this game will likely represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. If it were indoors on a neutral field, L.A. might be that representative (they still could be if Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram control the line of scrimmage). But the Pats dynasty ain’t dead just yet. Chargers cover; Patriots win.
Philadelphia Eagles (#6) at New Orleans Saints (#1) (-8)
“You can’t keep Nick Foles down.”
I uttered these words on The Preseason Podcast of the Year last week. To recap, I picked against the Eagles in last year’s NFC Championship Game, the Super Bowl and last week in Chicago, and have a tidy 0-3 record to show for it. It really feels like Philly has something special (sorry) in the works once again. If nobody believed in them in last year, they’re really underdogs now as a six seed against the 13-3 Saints in The Big Easy.
Foles in the last 12 months narrowly beat the Falcons at home, destroyed the Vikings at home, beat the Patriots in a shootout on the big stage, then won a low-scoring cold weather game in Chicago on Sunday. The Eagles are doing this in just about every way imaginable! Sunday presents a new test, as the Saints appear to be better in every facet of the game, and are coming off the most heartbreaking loss in recent playoff memory.
But it is possible the Eagles are peaking now, while the Saints peaked around Halloween, culminating in the murder of the defending champs 48-7 on November 18. The Saints literally did whatever they wanted that day, which could give them a false perception of what’s in store this weekend. Philadelphia must start by neutralizing the Saints rushing attack and staying close early. Drew Brees will air it out if need be, but the Saints would rather let the run open up their passing game. Fletcher Cox should be up to this task.
Sidebar: Sean Payton, please scrap any play involving Taysom Hill. They all suck and it’s not worth the time to practice them.
Everyone is saying “New Orleans can’t lose at home”, which is true to this point. The Saints are undefeated in playoffs at home with Drew Brees. But last week I compared these Eagles to the 1995 Houston Rockets. Well Rudy Tomjanovich taught us…
and finally, the Eagles are starting to look like champions. I’m picking the Philly to win not because they’re better, but because they’ve earned it.