Congratulations! You’ve successfully thugged your way through four months of NFL football. With COVID-19 throwing curveballs all along the way, we’ve endured games with with no fans (and shoddy crowd noise being pumped in at odd times), games getting moved around as if days and time were mere options, and entire units getting benched out of blue before being forced to play anyway. If you won your fantasy league in the COVID season, you deserve a second trophy (ya boy won his).
So here we are, with an extra team in each conference getting the call up to the big leagues. The NFL is calling it “Super” Wildcard Weekend…okay. We’re just calling it like we see it, which usually is correctly. HHSR is 57-31 (.648) all-time at picking NFL playoff games straight up, since our inception. Professional sports bettors only hit on about 55% of their picks–that tells you all you need to know about us (that we’re in the wrong business).
#7 Indianapolis Colts at #2 Buffalo Bills (-6)
If there was ever a year where going on the road in the playoffs didn’t mean as much, it’s this year, where stadiums will be at 25% capacity at best. Then again, there is that other thing where teams that haven’t seen much postseason success historically are put in front of their home fans as heavy favorites, and when they’re down a touchdown late in the third quarter, all 80,000 fans get tighter than Gina Payne’s father.
So maybe the Colts are in a good spot. Or maybe the Bills are in a better spot than we think.
While the seventh seed, Indy is one of the most well-rounded teams in the playoffs. They rank about 10th in the NFL in everything, except for turnover differential, where they rank second.
The problem is Buffalo has just been mauling teams of late, with their defense finally creating turnovers again and their offense looking like the NFL’s best.
A closer look into their schedule though reveals they only defeated three playoff teams all season (Seattle, Pittsburgh & LA), with two of those teams having to travel from the west coast to upstate New York. There’s also a non-zero chance Josh Allen turns back into a pumpkin. His ability to protect the football will be key, as the Bills running backs will be lucky to amass 50 yards rushing in this contest.
This game is huge for Buffalo–a win here, and they can seriously challenge the Chiefs for the AFC. But all the breadcrumbs for a massive upset are in place. Everybody is picking the Bills, Buffalo may have “peaked too soon” and Indy’s coach and QB have more big game experience.
We’re pushing our chips in on a Colts upset victory. Just don’t tell Griselda–you know Benny got the goons on stand by.
#6 Los Angeles Rams at #3 Seattle Seahawks (-3)
He was “John Woeful” after his first pass on Sunday, though he eventually settled in. But the Seahawks will not lose this playoff home game to John Wolford. As mentioned, the lack of a crowd hurts Seattle as much as any other. So if Jared Goff is healthy enough to play, and does so reasonably well, the Rams can win this game. Granted, “reasonably well” is a place Goff hasn’t visited in many weeks.
The Seahawks are one of a handful of NFC teams capable of finding themselves in Super Bowl LV if they catch fire. The defense has certainly done so of late, but Jamal Adams is sub 100% and may not play. More troubling is Seattle hasn’t looked good offensively since around the time Jared Goff last played “reasonably well”. Sixty percent of Russell Wilson’s passing yards and 70% of his touchdown passes came in the first half of the season.
This game should be another rock fight, much like the Seahawks’ win over LA two weeks ago. It’s a race to 20 points, run by a team with broken legs versus a team with broken legs…and John Wolford (who ironically can run a little bit).
If Wolford plays, Seattle covers. If Goff plays the Rams pull the (modest) upset.
#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) at #4 Washington Football Team
Chase Young is just that–he was two when Tom Brady won his first Super Bowl. But that didn’t stop him from lining up the old man in his scope after the Eagles committed suicide live on Sunday Night Football.
Young is a fine football player (maybe the best collegiate defensive player I’ve ever seen), but he could be too naive to realize serving up this level of boisterous bulletin board materiel rarely goes well. Never mind the fact that Brady is unbothered by the rookie’s comments. TB12 has appeared in one fewer playoff game than the WFT franchise across their 89-year history. In those 41 playoff games, Tom has matched up with the likes of Ray Lewis, James Harrison, Dwight Freeney, Michael Strahan, J.J. Watt, Aaron Donald, Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware…you know, Hall of Fame guys at least as good as Chase Young.
Many believe Washington will get pressure on Brady, and there is plenty of data to support that theory. But Washington only faced two of the top 10 offenses this year, and managed only one combined sack in those two games. (Turns out playing in the NFC East can really boost your sack totals.) Also working against Washington: Alex Smith can’t move, and Tampa recorded one more sack than WTF WFT on the season.
Washington covers; TB moves on.
#5 Baltimore Ravens (-3) at #4 Tennessee Titans
Last year we correctly predicted the Titans would defeat the Ravens (whom everyone thought was unbeatable). This year, the matchup is basically a coin flip.
Tennessee’s pass defense could only be worse if Mike D’Antoni was somehow involved, but Baltimore’s rudimentary pass attack isn’t really equipped to capitalize on it. Meanwhile, the Titans offense is elite, and not just because of Derrick Henry. A.J. Brown looks like a young Megatron in the making. But it seems hard to believe Lamar Jackson would lay a third straight playoff egg for the birds. The late season discovery of J.K. Dobbins has been a godsend, and 3rd down should greatly impact the outcome of this contest. The Ravens are fourth best in 3rd down offense (and second best in 3rd down defense); Tennessee is dead last in 3rd down defense.
Though Baltimore has fattened up off bum teams to finish the season, they’ll learn from their mistakes and pull off a road victory/cover.
#7 Chicago Bears at #2 New Orleans Saints (-10)
The Dolphins weren’t the only team that nearly fumbled the playoff bag by shoehorning in a midseason QB controversy. If the Bears had switched back to Mitchell Trubisky one week later, they probably miss the postseason. Fortunately for them, they finally realized they needed to rely on David Montgomery and the run game to have any chance at winning. The defense has been good, but not spectacular like you’d expect.
The Saints are once again a chic pick to do damage in the playoffs, despite the fact that the only damage they usually do is to the psyche of their fans.
Be honest: Do you trust the Saints in January? How many times do they have to break our hearts before we go full Peter Griffin?
Drew Brees has been a productive playoff quarterback, but it’s translated only to a meager 8-8 record (more evidence that winning in the playoffs is really hard). Choosing Trubisky over Brees, in the Superdome sounds foolish, especially given the Saints’ ability to turn teams over and rush the passer. But the loss of their home crowd and New Orleans’ uncanny ability to turn into the Atlanta Falcons in the playoffs, puts this game on upset alert.
Bears cover; Saints win.
#6 Cleveland Browns at #3 Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
COVID outbreaks, drag racing, season-ending injuries–the only way this week could be worse for the Browns is if it somehow Nancy Pelosi had a desk at their Berea, OH facility.
Baker Mayfield wasn’t born the last time Browns won a playoff game. All signs point to this epic drought continuing like a Weezy mixtape. The line opened at Pittsburgh -3.5–it’s now up to Pittsburgh -6 with the news that Browns coach Kevin Stefanski, guard Joel Bitonio (among others) will miss the contest after contracting Coronavirus. Edge rusher Olivier Vernon ruptured his Achilles last week and corner Denzel Ward isn’t a lock to play as he returns from COVID-19. Worst of all, the Browns never beat the Steelers, especially not in Heinz Field.
This is a slam dunk, right? Well…
Mike Tomlin’s Steelers always…ALWAYS…play down to their competition. Equally as important, Pittsburgh doesn’t do anything well offensively. They lost four of their last five to end the season. Ben Roethlisberger is fading (see Bengals game) and they have the least dynamic run game in the NFL.
Conversely, we know the Browns can run the rock. The problem is, we know Pittsburgh WILL load the box, forcing Baker to beat them, rather than Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Cleveland has proven they will come out with Baker firing (often high and wide) when teams sell out to stop the run. But with no Stefanski to guide him, and Baker scrambling away from the pressure of the league’s top pass rush, it’s easy to see his turnover bugaboo resurface. This game could come down to whether T.J. Watt or Myles Garrett makes the game-changing play.
Cleveland will hang (aka cover), and a win would be an amazing story, but it’s hard to see the Browns making this happen under the circumstances. A very unimpressive Steelers team advances, which doesn’t seem fair. Cleveland could beat them under different circumstances. Hell, Buffalo is better! It’s just too bad “fair” isn’t guaranteed a seat in the NFL playoffs.