There are three types of teams that enter the NFL Playoffs. Team A is riding an emotional high, usually after a hot streak and or late season victory, to secure a spot in the dance. Team B is chillin, just sort of running out the clock to get to the playoffs which is most likely not their first trip in recent years. And Team C is wheezing to the finish line just begging for somebody to put it out of its misery, like when a bloodthirsty Kobe put 55 on Wizards Jordan.
They’re all here…let’s get started!
Hold up. First, here’s our numbers dating back to the January 2013 NFL Playoffs:
- 32-18 (.640) on Wildcard Weekend
- 31-13 (.705) on Divisional Round Weekend
- 11-11 (.500) in Conference Championships
- 7-4 (.636) in Super Bowls
- 81-46 (.638) All-Time
#5 Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at #5 Houston Texans
The Browns and Texans matchup has appeal because they’re both Team A.
You can largely dismiss Houston & Cleveland’s Christmas Eve contest, as presumptive OROY (apologies Puka Nacua) CJ Stroud did not play. So let’s look at some common opponents:
- Houston lost to the Ravens convincingly; in the one game where the Browns knew who their QB was before kickoff, Cleveland outlasted the Ravens in Baltimore.
- Houston lost to the Colts at home and barely won a road game in Indy on Saturday; Cleveland beat the Colts in Indy with a former XFL quarterback.
- Houston smacked Pittsburgh; Cleveland split with Pittsburgh.
- Houston beat Denver; Denver beat Cleveland.
- Houston narrowly beat the Bengals with Joe Burrow; Cleveland trounced the Bengals with Burrow.
- Houston split with the Jags, losing the most recent matchup at home; Cleveland controlled Jacksonville for four quarters.
- Houston got killed by the Jets; Cleveland killed the Jets.
Taking these results into account, Cleveland appears to be the better team. Is this a far too reductionist analysis? Yup! But despite Stroud missing the Browns game, Houston’s starting defense (sans Will Anderson Jr,) was on the field for an off-the-couch Joe Flacco going Dan Marino on them…yeah, Cleveland is better. Not to mention they’ve done all this as an infirmary of a football team.
In fact, with Flacco back from the dead (the Flacco-Browns are averaging 28.6 points per game, which would rank 4th in the NFL), Cleveland is objectively the most complete team in the tournament not from San Francisco or Baltimore. Turnovers are their only bugaboo—if not for turnovers, this Browns D would almost never allow points. But there is a world where they turn it over enough to lose this game.
Houston fans seem convinced they easily won the Deshaun Watson trade, even if that’s not the case. The Browns have already defeated the Texans in Houston twice in the last 13 months, and one of those games didn’t even involve Watson. The good news is the Texans franchise is receiving praise for overcoming its racist ways to make the playoffs with a rookie coach and quarterback. But teams with that profile don’t typically make it far. Flacco’s road playoff excellence doesn’t hurt.
Competitive game, but the Browns and their mega-defense (which has been admittedly human on the road) win and cover.
Sidebar: The Browns won’t win them all, but they have a real argument to sweep Defensive Player of the Year (Myles Garrett), Coach of the Year (Kevin Stefanski), Comeback Player of the Year (Joe Flacco), Assistant Coach of the Year (Jim Schwartz) and Executive of the Year (Andrew Berry).
#6 Miami Dolphins at #3 Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
The Chiefs are Team B, but closer to being Team C than their fans would care to admit. The Dolphins are the Team C-iest team you’d ever see (well, let’s wait for Philly).
Two years ago, we thought the Chiefs’ loss of Tyreek Hill would cripple their offense and prevent them from reaching the NFL’s greatest heights…then then won the Super Bowl. Now, that take is back from the dead like Joe Flacco!
The Tyreek Bowl is finally hear and the Dolphins couldn’t look more out of it. Miami is missing their top two pass rushers and Tua Tagovailoa’s last two weeks have been worse than Cedric the Entertainer’s. Hill is limping far too frequently and Jaylen Waddle might not play at all. The epic speed of Dolphins was never designed to survive December or January football. Throw in the frigid Kansas City temperatures, KC having already beat the Phins on a neutral field, and the Dolphins looking like trash against every good team they’ve faced all season and Miami is basically screwed here.
An extremely vulnerable Chiefs team wins and covers at home. But it’ll be fascinating to see this “dynasty” eventually take their show on the road to Baltimore or Buffalo, if it comes to pass.
#7 Pittsburgh Steelers at #2 Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
How do the Steelers do it? Not only do they inexplicably make the playoffs, they do it as Team A. The Bills are also a Team A, but here’s the thing: The Bills are dangerous, yet aren’t playing well; the Steelers are playing well, yet aren’t dangerous. At all.
If not for TJ Watt’s injury this past weekend, Pittsburgh might have a shot at an upset. The Bills have won five straight, but only looked impressive in one of them. However they have experience and a quarterback—that’s half the battle. And Buffalo has excelled against playoff caliber competition in 2023.
Calling the Steelers offense anemic would be an insult to anemia. Mike Tomlin getting this team to this point should be celebrated, but the entire offense (literally) outside of George Pickens and Jaylen Warren is replaceable. How can you tell? Because they already replaced their offensive coordinator and quarterback midseason. And newsflash: Mason Rudolph won’t save you, Pittsburgh.
Ten points is a lot to ask, especially against a resourceful team like the Steelers in crappy weather. Buffalo wins this game despite Pittsburgh covering.
#7 Green Bay Packers at #2 Dallas Cowboys (-7)
For the zillionth time, the Packers and Cowboys hook up in the postseason.
Green Bay won three straight to end the season and are a strong Team A. The Cowboys are very much Team B—they knew all along they’d make the ‘yoffs, and at this point, regular season wins won’t save anyone’s job in Big D.
Dallas destroyed (almost) every opponent at home this season, so a Packers win, with Jordan Love in his first playoff start, would be shocking. How does Matt LaFleur’s team stop the Cowboys’ top rated offense and fifth rated defense in Dallas?
Well, how does a squirrel stop a Tahoe?
Okay, a Packers win wouldn’t be that unlikely, but these two teams are on different timelines. The Packers could be right back to NFC supremacy in short order, but the time is now for Dallas. While beating down the Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving was impressive, the Lions don’t have a Micah Parsons, a CeeDee Lamb or a home Dak Prescott.
The Packers are on the rise and will cover, but nothing will stop the Cowboys…unless they go to San Francisco.
#7 Los Angeles Rams at #3 Detroit Lions (-3)
The Rams are Team A, having won seven of their last eight; the Lions may be the only team that doesn’t fall into a category. On one hand, they’re in the midst of a widely successful season. On the other, the just suffered a narrow loss at Dallas (following some really dumb coaching decisions) and then won in Week 18, but not before losing star tight end Matt LaPorta to injury.
Matthew Stafford returning home has surprisingly turned into a bigger story than expected. Underrated is Jared Goff getting sweet revenge against Sean McVay, who dropped him like Marvel did Jonathan Majors, before winning a Super Bowl with his new boy Stafford. The Lions possess an explosive offense, but the Rams have a coaching and experience edge, and are the hottest team in the NFC. All of this has made them the sexy upset choice.
And who doesn’t like sex?
Rams advance. PS. This game should be broadcast on Bravo!
#5 Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at #4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa is a fugazi Team A—they have all the makings of a team that should be fired up for the playoffs, except their quarterback is a banged up Baker Mayfield and they couldn’t score a touchdown against the dreadful Panthers last week (they didn’t look good the week before either). Meanwhile, the Eagles are the walking textbook definition of Team C.
The Eagles thumped the Bucs in Week 3 in a game nobody remembers and things were looking up. We were bullish on Nick Sirianni’s team as they petered out the end of their toughest stretch of the season. (Actually, it was the toughest stretch any team had all year.) It seemed conceivable that the Eagles could would drop a few games given their impossible schedule, but that wouldn’t mean they were fatally flawed.
Well, funny thing…
Philly was a punt return, an inexplicably dropped football and or a questionable holding call away from being defending champs, but this is a completely different team. The offense has withered away, while the defense has somehow been shredded most of the season. The Eagles (our preseason Super Bowl pick) is running on fumes and the really hard games haven’t even started yet. Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown and Devonte Smith are nursing injuries, the locker room may be on fire and there are rumors Siranni’s job is on the line.
A game against a tough but undermanned Bucs team may be just what the doctor ordered—they just don’t have enough to take advantage of the Eagles vulnerable state (hey, someboy had to win the trash NFC South). But Philadelphia is living on borrowed time.
Birds somehow cover over Bucs.