It really feels like the Super Bowl is back where it belongs. Nope, I’m not talking about Miami. I’m talking about the game being in the crosshairs of punctuating what would be yet another phenomenal run picking games at HHSR! After an 0-3 start, we’ve reeled off seven straight correct predictions to pull our lifetime record to 57-30 (we’ve been trash this year against the spread, honestly). We’re 4-3 picking the Super Bowl though, but tidying up that record weirdly seems easier now than in years past. Almost too easy.
Super Bowl LIV
#1 San Fransisco 49ers vs #2 Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
A cursory look at this delectable matchup reveals an obvious conundrum football fans frequently face in early February: Who wins? The electrifying offense or the impenetrable defense? We never did find out who won the matchup of the irresistible force versus the immovable object (somehow Twitter managed not to spoil it like an episode of Power), but we regularly see this matchup in football’s biggest game.
Here’s a look at some recent Super Bowl matchups that pitted a top flight offense against a top flight defense:
- Tampa Bay defeated Oakland 48-21
- Pittsburgh defeated Seattle 21-10
- Indianapolis defeated Chicago 29-17
- Pittsburgh defeated Arizona 27-23
- Seattle defeated Denver 43-8
- Denver defeated Carolina 24-10
- New England defeated Atlanta 34-28
- New England defeated Los Angeles 13-3
Of those games, only when the Indianapolis Colts bested the Bears did the top-tier offense prevail. And that doesn’t include the ’98 Minnesota Vikings losing in the NFC Championship Game; or the ’01 Rams losing in the Super Bowl to the Patriots, the ’07 Patriots losing to the Giants or the ’11 Giants beating the Patriots again (these upper-echelon offenses faced regular season statistically average defenses, but were done in when those defenses played exceptionally in the Super Bowl).
We see seemingly unstoppable offenses lose in the playoffs all the time! Even the Chiefs lost to the Patriots just last year (same Patrick Mahomes under center; same Andy Reid roaming the sidelines). So you’d think people would’ve learned their lesson by now, right?
Nah.
The general public seems to feel Mahomes and the Chiefs’ wicked offense is destined to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Forget the spread; talking heads and call-in show viewers alike appear to be all in on Kansas City.
It’s quite possible the Chiefs win. KC’s Tommy Gun-like ability to hang crooked numbers in a hurry was on full display throughout the AFC playoffs. Houston and Tennessee looked like punch-drunk fighters after catching a second quarter Mahomes hadouken. Offenses this talented are never out of a game and we’re only now seeing the Chiefs click on all levels as they are most healthy at the right time of year…
But what happens when the top-flight defense you’re facing also averages 30 points per game? That’s the hand the Chiefs have been dealt on Sunday.
The Niners have upped that total to 32 points per game in the postseason. The run game is sublime; the pass game a mere garnish. Critics of San Francisco erroneously cite the lack of passing output as a weakness, failing to properly consider the nonessential nature of forcing a riskier (by nature) aerial assault while averaging 5.3 yards a pop in two playoff games. The Chiefs run D was fourth worst in the NFL this season, and although they stifled Derrick Henry in the AFC Championship Game, slowing the 49ers zone blocking scheme looks to be an even taller task.
The criticism Jimmy Garoppolo has received this week has passed the point of misguided and ventured into insulting. Because he’s barely had to warm up this postseason, people have been fooled into believing this a Trent Dilfer-2000 Ravens situation. But Jimmy G is far from a game manager. According to ESPN’s Louis Riddick, Garoppolo is the ONLY quarterback in the NFL ranking in the top 5 in completion percentage, yards per attempt and TD passes. He’s also 21-5 as the starting QB in The Bay and 23-5 lifetime as starter, with one loss coming at Arrowhead last year when he tore his ACL.
Sidebar: It will be dope watching George Kittle and Travis Kelce in a Super Bowl. Sorry, had to shoehorn that in here somehow.
HHSR picked against Kansas City in the 2019 AFC Championship on the grounds that they never proved able to get a stop when it mattered most. And in case you forgot, that bit them in the ass on a frigid Midwestern Sunday. This year, the defense (run D notwithstanding) is better. The secondary, led by Tyrann Mathieu, allowed the fourth lowest completion percentage and sixth lowest yards per attempt in the NFL. But that will hardly be of assistance to them when San Fransisco’s ground game is pushing them around like human shuffleboard.
Yes, the Chiefs possess the greatest offensive weaponry in the game (something rarely mentioned in conversations about Mahmoes’ dominance). And that’s great, except the Chiefs don’t even try to run the ball, which makes Robert Saleh’s defensive gameplan much easier to manage. Also working against #ChiefsKingdom: the 49ers defense ranking second in yards allowed, eighth in points allowed, sixth in takeaways and tying for fifth in sacks. They were also tied for second in 3rd down defense. Interestingly, SF’s offense is fifth in 3rd down conversions. KC was first in that category, but the defense ranked 12th on the most critical down. Far from porous, but they’re not the 49ers.
Do you see what’s happening here? Believe it or not, it almost doesn’t matter what Mahomes does on Sunday. His defense will need to play the game of their life in order to win. People are intoxicated with Mahomes (understandably so). And as a result, nobody is picking the Chiefs; everybody is picking Patrick Mahomes. And while quarterbacks impact the outcome of games more than any other singular player, if the greatness of one quarterback was that significant, maybe Dan Marino has four Super Bowls and Terry Bradshaw has none. Still, no matter how hard we resist, football is still the ultimate team sport.
This game has the DNA of two other Super Bowls written all over it:
- Super Bowl XIX: With the top scoring defense in football, these same 49ers defeated a juggernaut passing attack, led by Marino, with a balanced offensive gameplan. The Dolphins rested everything on their MVP QB, who dropped back 50 times and was picked twice in the loss. The Niners dominated time of possession and won by a comfortable 38-16 margin.
- Super Bowl XLVIII: The Denver Broncos rode in with the greatest statistical offense in NFL history and were obliterated 43-8 by a Seahawks team with the NFL’s best defense. Similarly, Seattle’s balanced offense proved more efficient than the Broncos, as Peyton Manning was also picked twice and lost a fumble on 49 pass attempts.
The Dolphins and Broncos were both smoked on the big stage. The same thing will happen to the Chiefs on Sunday.
It will require four quarters of excellence to defeat the Niners. Despite not facing the toughest of competition to this point in the playoffs, the Chiefs have managed to piss away significant chunks of both games. Andy Reid’s club has been shockingly sloppy in both games. Turnovers, dropped passes, slow starts—all of that is unacceptable against this team on this stage. Mahomes’ brilliance can only soak up so many deficiencies, yet the Chiefs cannot rely on their run game, or their defense, or their situational football acumen as a lifeline when they need it. It’s all on Mahomes—their only path to victory is literally throwing up a bunch of points.
The road to a Super Bowl championship is one littered with detours. San Fransisco is built like an all-terrain vehicle. The Chiefs are a Ferrari that really only works well on nice days. But as Shaquille O’Neal once taught us, you can’t stop the reign.
Welcome to the six-time Super Bowl champion club, San Francisco.
