It wasn’t easy but we’ve arrived at the NBA Finals most of us expected.
Well, it was kind of easy for the Cavaliers. Each member of the HHSR family had them in the NBA Finals at the start of the season, and the Clevelanders raced out to a 10-0 start to the playoffs ultimately finishing 12-2 in the first three rounds of the postseason. The Warriors meanwhile, whom yours truly had coming out the West again at the start of the playoffs (sadly, I felt compelled to change my preseason pick), had an arduous playoff row to hoe by comparison.
Or did they? Let’s take a closer look and pick a champion!
(1) Golden State Warriors vs (1) Cleveland Cavaliers
Even the casual NBA fan can take a cursory look at the NBA playoffs and deduce that the Cleveland Cavaliers didn’t experience the most strenuous road to reaching their second consecutive NBA Finals. Detroit and Atlanta are nice teams, but posed no real threat. Toronto was mercurial all postseason and was frankly lucky to win the two games they did. Now Cleveland enters the Finals looking like a team who just won the AAA World Series. They even kind of celebrated like it.
On the exterior, this is a huge problem. Nobody wants to drop games in the playoffs, and after the Cavs suffered crippling injuries last postseason, you can understand why they wouldn’t be too keen on playing extra games just for the exercise in intensity. But many prognosticators, myself included, prefers to lean on the battle-tested when asked to forecast the future. The “they haven’t played anybody” argument is one that I’ve used before, and in theory isn’t one I’d hesitate to dust off again, even if it doesn’t always hold up in the end. But this Cavs team is different.
For all the relative coasting done in the playoffs, as a team and as an organization, the Cavs have endured more turmoil and undergone more of a transformation in the last 12 months than most teams do in five years. A year ago they entered the Finals down one All-NBA player (Kevin Love), and were about to lose another (Kyrie Irving). They left the Finals beaten, injured and unsure of their future. Many speculated that Kevin Love wouldn’t even re-up, and that the team would have to reconcile the fact they traded top draft pick Andrew Wiggins essentially for nothing. General Manager David Griffin also still had to figure out how to bring back Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova; upgrade the rest of the roster, and resign LeBron James, a task that would become much more difficult had the aforementioned negotiations went left.
From there, the team would be without Irving almost until Christmas. LeBron and his troops would become a frequent topic on [insert sports talking head show here] for his infamous “cryptic tweets” which appeared to be straight out of an M. Night Shyamalan flick. On an ostensibly related note, Kevin Love’s usage and performance were wildly inconsistent at times, and oh, they canned the coach midseason. Many publications admonished the unstable Cavs as a title contender for making such a hasty move, while other websites simply noted they should be highly pissed at all the naysayers.
Then Kyrie Irving ended his very uneven season by becoming a major topic on Bossip for all the wrong reasons (are there any good reasons to be a topic on Bossip though?)
That’s just on a macro level. But on a granular level, this group of Cavaliers is playing with as more inspiration than anyone.
Irving’s romantic life aside, he and Love are out for equal parts vindication and validation after they mostly missed out on the NBA Finals experience in 2015. Shumpert played in the Finals last year but was much less than 100%, while Delly looked like Muhammad Ali after The Thrilla in Manila at the conclusion of Game 3— they literally rushed him to the hospital after the game. What about J.R.? The eccentric streak-shooter was humbled last summer when he opted out and hit free agency only to have his phone remain silent, resulting in him taking a pay cut to come back to Cleveland. Channing Frye was on a go-nowhere Orlando team just three months ago, which was better being on the sidelines altogether three years ago when he thought his career might be over due to an enlarged heart which caused him to miss a full season. Richard Jefferson is getting his second championship life back having set the record for most number of seasons between Finals appearances. And of course LeBron James is motivated by everything you already know about: legacy, redemption, jealousy, and finally, after nine seasons, bringing the title to 216.
Hunger is a funny thing in sports. A friend recently told me when discussing the Finals, “’Hungrier’ ain’t a real thing. I’ve never seen two teams in the Finals and thought one lost because they weren’t hungry.” He raised a good point. But added motivation, or put in terms of one of our favorite sports clichés, “bulletin board material” is viewed as a real thing. Bulletin board material was supposedly the driving force behind the Golden State Warriors record rampage through this NBA season after many wondered aloud if their 2015 championship was at all tainted. It’s also been cited as a reason why Stephen Curry eviscerated the Oklahoma City Thunder in the final three games of the conference finals after Russell Westbrook laughed off Curry’s defensive abilities.
The Warriors are hungry for immortality, but if they fall short they’ve already accomplished more than most teams could ever dream up. Their championship rings are already safely locked away at the crib. The 73-9 regular season record could stand for decades. The comeback against OKC from down 3-1 in the series is a feat only nine other teams have ever accomplished in league history (PTI’s Tony Kornheiser believes this comeback validates the Dubs entire season).
So where does that leave us?
We’ve made a lot of predictions around here (many of them accurately, some not so much), but there often appears to be a common thread many championship teams tend to share: maturity.
Right, not exactly earth-shattering stuff. But maturity doesn’t necessarily equate to “old”. Maturity is in sports is the the result of intellectual and experiential development intersecting perfectly with physical skill. We saw this mesh take place with the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl. Despite being heavy underdogs, Denver was by far the more mature team, and carried themselves as such.
According to a 2012 NBA.com article, in the post-Jordan era, the average age of the past 13 NBA championship teams was 29.27. With an average age of 27.5, the Warriors are a little ahead of the curve having already won a title (they actually were the eighth youngest team to ever in a title at 26.393). The Cavaliers entered 2015-16 with an average age of 29.5 (bingo!)
For all the LBJ vs Steph talk, Kevin Love may decide who wins this series more than any other player.
Obviously, the Warriors are mature enough to win it all, but the Cavs maturity level is ideal for a championship run. And it would undoubtedly hurt the Dubs to come this far and not go back-to-back, but win or lose the Warriors are good money. They already have records; they already have hardware. The Cavaliers, as an organization and as individuals — and LeBron James, the most unfairly criticized athlete of our time — don’t have that luxury.
At this point you may be thinking this all sounds far fetched, and things like maturity and motivation have little barring on who actually has the edge on the court. Surly the Warriors have that advantage, right?
Well, yes. You don’t go 73-9 on accident. This is the most prolific three-point shooting team in league history, and there’s 1000 other stats that could prove the Warriors are legit; a concept that old heads, the anti-analytics crowd, and natives of Cleveland, OH cannot seem to grasp or refuse to accept. The last time they played the Cavs, Golden State beat them so bad it got their coach fired and subsequently sent back to Europe. The Warriors have beaten the Cavs the last five times they’ve met. Cleveland wasn’t tested in the playoffs. LeBron has a tendency to lose in the Finals, like last year. All signs point to another Golden State romp…except this isn’t the same Cavaliers team that limped in the Finals some 362 days ago.
As mentioned, the coach is different, and the Wine & Gold’s offense is on par with the Warriors since Tyronn Lue took over. Between the long range bombing of the Atlanta Hawks and the in-paint dominance of the Toronto Raptors, the Cavs have shown a versatility that should keep the Warriors up at night. The addition of Channing Frye has given the Cavs supreme floor spacing for LeBron (and Kyrie) to orchestrate. Lineups featuring Frye, Love, LeBron, Smith and Irving are deadly offensively, and while he’s not a great rebounder, Frye has been a better defender than expected. The Cavs have the ability to play big or small, can beat you inside or out, and can play with tempo or under control.
Sidebar: Back in the 70’s, Cleveland was known as “Bomb City USA” for leading the nation in mob-related car bombings. As long as the Cavs are hitting three’s, can we PLEASE resurrect this nickname?!?!
Yes, the Warriors have won the last five meetings against the Cavaliers, but they haven’t played this Cavs team, and they definitely didn’t play anything close to this Cavs team last June. The dead weight of Kendrick Perkins, Brendan Haywood, Mike Miller and Shawn Marion has been trimmed. Love, Irving, Shump and Delly are rested and healthy. LeBron is in the best shape he’s ever been in this late in a season.
The Warriors are pretty much the same team but with championship experience. However, even though the record was better in 2016, the team is arguably worse. Golden State’s used-to-be top flight defense was lit up at various points of the Western Conference playoffs; giving up 70+ point halves won’t get you to a second championship. Enhancing your already astonishing offensive execution might though.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst has gone to great lengths to explain how the Dubs will do everything in their power to expose Love’s lack of lateral quickness in pick and roll situations, especially when the Warriors go small late in games (and to a lesser extent Irving too). With Timofey Mozgov relegated to the 11th man on the roster, the Cavs have no interior defense to speak of. Cleveland’s best plan of attack to make sure Love is engaged early in each game so he is not completely marginalized. If fully engaged though, Love and the Cavs should be able to pound Golden State on the glass, and take advantage of their careless turnovers.
The other tricky part for Cleveland is getting one of the first two in Oakland as they did last year to give themselves a chance. It’s really unlikely they could beat this team four out of five if they don’t, and winning a game early would (temporarily at least) remove the need to win a Game 7 at Oracle. Regardless, the Cavs will be in for the fight of their life because not only is Curry back (and healthy), Klay Thompson has been electric this entire postseason. He saved his greatest trick for Game 6 against the Thunder, where he was the best player on a court with three future Hall of Famers, and hauled Golden State’s season out of the fire practically by himself. In case you missed it…
Still, Draymond Green struggled in the West Finals, and remains on the brink of suspension (although apparently he can Liu Kang his opponent in the junk and nobody bats an eye). Furthermore, the Warriors were ethered twice by OKC by at least 24 points just last week. At the end of our conference finals column, I called the Warriors “beatable”. I mentioned that the Warriors would win a difficult seven-game series, and also wrote the following:
“Again, there are no guarantees in sports. But there’s a reason why the favorites are the favorites, and sometimes the favorites take care of business.
Perhaps another major upset is on the horizon in these 2016 NBA playoffs, just not in the conference finals.”
We must remember the Dubs made the Finals by the skin of their teeth. They’re hardly the Teflon team we saw in the regular season; the aura of invincibility is gone. OKC actually led more of their series than the Warriors did. It doesn’t happen often, but when the three’s don’t fall, this is a very different team. Remember, it was LeBron’s high school coach Dru Joyce II that told HHSR Steph was “the product of a good system”.
Sidebar: Skip to the 59:07 mark.
Taking all of that into account, this is the part where I stick to our collective preseason prediction and say the Cavaliers win the NBA Finals in six games. The added motivation, the maturity, the health, the improved roster, and the best player in the world all gives the Cavaliers the look of a champion. We’ve discussed LeBron’s “Zero Dark 30-Twenty-Three” mode before— despite all the jokes about being 2-5 in his Finals career, James boats sparkling 26.4 point (seventh all-time), 6.9 assist, 9.6 rebound per game averages on .450 shooting over 33 career Finals games.
“But LeBron’s not clutch!”
Word? How about his 37 point (.522 shooting), 12 rebound, 4 assist, 5 three-pointer performance in Game 7 against the Spurs? Did you forget that that happened?
So many times the surest thing in sports isn’t a sure thing. When everybody & their mama is telling you to go one way, it’s probably wise to go the other way. And for all the winning they’ve done, perhaps there’s a reason the Warriors struggled against the Thunder. Steve Kerr called OKC the most talented team they’ve faced in two years— he’s absolutely correct. All the breaks the Dubs caught last year, drawing a wreck of a Houston team in round one, catching another HUGE break by not having to play the Clippers in the semis, avoiding the Spurs two years in a row— Golden State has played only one tough team in their seven series the last two years. That’s about as light of a test the Cavs have encountered in the East.
A win in these Finals will be a historic one for whomever is victorious. Then again, they don’t put fairy tale endings in history books.
Anthony’s pick: Warriors in 7
Kenneth’s pick: Cavs in 6
