We finished “Super” Wildcard Weekend 4-2 on picks and 4-1-1 against the spread. Though we missed on Browns/Steelers, seeing Pittsburgh again underwhelm against a seemingly inferior opponent was magnificent. We currently sit at 61-33 (.649) all-time, including 21-11 (.656) on Wildcard Weekend and 23-9 (.719) in the Divisional Round.
#6 Los Angeles Rams at #1 Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
The Packers ought to be thanking their lucky starts the LA Rams are limping into Lambeau Field on Saturday. Jared Goff is throwing with a Fred Flintstone thumb, Cooper Kupp has a banged up knee (Are the Rams getting an A-Kupp, B-Kupp or a C-Kupp? They’ll need to feel it out), and most importantly, Aaron Donald is battling a rib injury.
Green Bay is rested and will try to ride two home games to their second Super Bowl in the Aaron Rodgers era. Rodgers threw up comical numbers this year, in large part due to Davante Adams. Do y’all remember the time Ocho was in tears at the mere sight of Adams running routes??
Turns out he was right. Dude was open ALL YEAR! But now he’ll be match up with Jalen Ramsey, who’s a pretty damn good football player in his own right. IF Ramsey can neutralize Adams, Rodgers will have to go to his off-speed pitch. Fortunately for him, that’s worked out well this year. In two games without Adams (one against the Saints), Rodgers went 48-64 (74%), 610 yards, 7 TDs & 0 INTs.
Rodgers played probably the worst game of his career when Tampa hit him 13 times, including five sacks. With Donald compromised, it’s unlikely the Rams will generate the four-man rush needed to disrupt the Packers offense.
The only thing you worry about with the Packers–what happens if the Rams just push them around? The book is out on Rodgers and Green Bay: get physical with them. If you push them around, they WILL turn and run. For all his talent, Rodgers only has one 4th quarter comeback in his playoff career, and on that day…Dez caught it. It may seem insignificant, but when you punch Rodgers and the Packers in the mouth, they usually fold like origami. The Giants and Seahawks have done it. The 49ers have done it more than once. And the Rams are the type of team that could do it.
Both squads were 4-2 against playoff teams, which is a decent indication that these teams are real and didn’t make here by accident. But we’ll give the slight edge to the homestead Packers, with LA covering. But if Donald looks 100%…look out.
#5 Baltimore Ravens at #2 Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
There’s nothing worse than picking a massive upset, and having everything falls into place for it to happen, except your pick fails to make the handful of critical plays needed to make you look like a genius. That was the Bills/Colts for us last week, and often that’s what separates the good from the great teams in the NFL.
We continue to have a lot of love Buffalo; they were only a casualty in the Wildcard picks column because the Colts were not your average seven seed. Indianapolis outplayed Buffalo for considerable stretches of the game (it was the only playoff game lost by the better team in the trenches), and if not for Buffalo recovering a Josh Allen fumble late after he took a 70-yard sack, or some weird stuff with the clock in the final seconds, we could’ve easily had a different outcome. As it is, Allen was able to lose his playoff virginity in pretty exhilarating fashion.
Lamar Jackson also got playoff laid last week. He set the world on fire with a couple of electric scrambles, but you have to wonder what Baltimore can really do offensively in a game that could have snow shows that Jackson is admittedly not experienced with. Four Jackson carries netted 118 yards, which accounted for nearly 30% of their offense against Tennessee. Of course, running away from everybody is within Lamar’s capability, but 179 yards passing, zero touchdowns and one interception aren’t exactly Marino numbers.
The Ravens defense won the Tennessee game; it feels like a lot to ask them to shut down the league’s fourth and now second best offenses both on the road in consecutive playoff rounds. Mark Andrews should feast against a Bills defense that allows tight ends whatever they want. But if he doesn’t, it could be a struggle for BMore’s offense in inclement weather against a team that practices frequently against a highly mobile quarterback.
This game feels like it could be a classic–we’re taking the Bills to narrowly win and cover.
Sidebar: We interrupt this column to bring you an angry Steelers fan (LMAOOOOO!!!)
#6 Cleveland Browns at #1 Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
Kansas City went 14-1 in games they actually tried to win. Patrick Mahomes is great (even if not quite as great as many think just yet), they’re defending Super Bowl champions and the top seed in the AFC.
So how do the Browns do this? Contrary to popular belief, there is a legitimate pathway to victory for Cleveland.
By the time this game kicks off on Sunday, KC’s best players will not have played a meaningful snap in three weeks. Ben Roethlisberger and Maurkice Pouncey didn’t play the last week of the season either, and after botching the opening play of the game, look how it turned out for them.
The banged up Browns secondary has been more than leaky all season (just ask any Browns fan about Andrew Sendejo). This trait is normally the kiss of death for all Kansas City opponents, but the Browns will be getting Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson back. Where Cleveland has made up for their back end deficiencies has been through forcing takeaways. The Browns led the NFL in this critical category halfway through the season. They only slipped after their bye and Myles Garrett’s two-game absence came in a three-out-of-four-week span. The Browns won the turnover battle over the sloppy Steelers 5-0.
This matters for the Chiefs because this team has a tendency to be careless with the football. According to Pro Football Focus, Mahomes had 15 turnover-worthy plays in 2020, and led the NFL in dropped interceptions. And if you look at the tape, it adds up.
There’s also data that suggest Mahomes was the luckiest QB in the league in 2018. Patty is clearly amazing–every team would trade their current QB for him. But you’d have to imagine this string of good fortune would run out at some point–why not against a team that managed to capitalize on every possible opportunity just last week (unlike the Colts)? If KC is at all rusty, the Browns have proven capable of seizing the moment.
The Chiefs haven’t won a game by more than a touchdown since November 1st; even when they’ve been good, they haven’t been sharp. Throw in the presumed returns of Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio and zoom coach extraordinaire Kevin Stefanski, and this Browns team should be much better than the one that demolished the Steelers (assuming Jack Conklin is also active).
Look for 4th down to play a huge role in this game. Any time Andy Reid sends the offense back out on 4th down, you will hear the opposing fan base peeing down their legs. Meanwhile, the Browns were arguably the worst 4th down defense in NFL history! They allowed the most conversions ever, and had the second worst percentage this season (22-27 – 81.5%).
We know the formula: control clock, fewer penalties, win (or tie at least) tie turnover margin, score TDs in the red zone, win 3rd and 4th down. As great as the Browns looked last week, Pittsburgh helped them out quite a bit. If the Cleveland Browns can pull this off, we’ll pick them to win every game from here on out. But for now, we’ll settle for a cover, but a Chiefs victory in an competitive game, and a HUGE step for the Browns’ development.
#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at #2 New Orleans Saints (-3)
The Saints smoked the Bucs twice this season, yet you’ve probably already heard “It’s hard to beat a team three times in a year”. But wait, we already debunked this three years ago! Interestingly, it involved the Saints, and the Saints actually won the playoff game! So no, it is NOT that hard to beat a team three times in a year.
But those teams weren’t playing Tom Brady.
Sidebar: Like Aaron Donald last week, Brady putting out this message means a little something.
“Washington’s pass rush will disrupt Brady,” they said. “The Bucs are most likely to get upset,” they said. Brady took The Football Team apart last weekend, as Tampa kept TB12’s jersey relatively clean in large part due them keeping Rob Gronkowski in on pass protection. Gronk had one target and no catches; he’ll need to do this once more if they want to handle a New Orleans defense that registered 16 QB hits and five picks in two games versus the Buccaneers.
The Saints, as predicted here, did not look especially lethal in their win over the Bears. They covered, but maybe shouldn’t have, and if the Bears didn’t drop a wide open TD early in the game, things could’ve been very different.
Even with two convincing regular season wins, there’s still little reason to trust the Saints. And in no way has Drew Brees earned more trust than Tom Brady in January.
Antonio Brown wasn’t on the team for the first meeting, and the second meeting was his first game with the Bucs…this is this game he breaks out.
Bucs move on to Green Bay.